Economics
Next Fed rate hike?
Fed rate hike
$2.7M Vol.Closes Jan 1, 2028
Before 2028$56.9K Vol.73%
Before July 2027$139K Vol.68%
Before 2027$1.4M Vol.52%
Economics
Fed rate hike
The Federal Open Market Committee is maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% amid high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with no cuts expected until early 2027.
The Federal Reserve, led by Chair Kevin Warsh and the 19-member FOMC, is deciding whether to raise rates before the end of 2027.
Inflation remains elevated, labor indicators are mixed, and renewed Iran conflict has shifted market expectations toward a potential hike rather than a cut in late 2026.
A rate hike before 2028 would increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, while maintaining the hold could signal confidence in inflation cooling without further tightening.
Note: The CME FedWatch tool's 68.8% probability for a September 2026 hike reflects market sentiment, not official Fed commitment, and could shift rapidly with new inflation or geopolitical data.
Federal Open Market Committee minutes released June 17 indicate no expectations for an interest rate reduction until early 2027, with officials split on the outlook.
ForbesThe FOMC unanimously maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh confirming the hold during a press conference.
bondsavvy.comRenewed Middle East tensions escalated the likelihood of a rate hike by September 2026 to approximately 70%, with the CME FedWatch tool showing an 68.8% probability for a hike by September.
ForbesFOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29, 2026, where the Committee will review economic data and decide on rate adjustments.
federalreserve.govSeptember 2026 FOMC meeting is a potential date for a rate hike, with market odds now at 68.8% for a hike by then.
ForbesNovember 2026 FOMC meeting may provide another opportunity for a rate increase if inflation pressures persist.
federalreserve.govfederalreserve.govAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Inflation remains above target levels, with officials noting "uncertain" impacts from the Iran war that could sustain price pressures and necessitate tightening.
ForbesMarket pricing and derivatives indicate a nearly 60% chance of at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, reflecting investor confidence in a tightening cycle.
fidelity.comJ.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026 but hikes 25 basis points in September 2027, with risks tilted toward an earlier move.
jpmorgan.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The median of FOMC participants' modal paths implies no rate changes through early 2027 and one rate cut in the second quarter of 2027, suggesting a downhill trajectory rather than upward.
federalreserve.govGoldman Sachs Research expects the Fed to cut rates in June and December 2027, viewing rate hikes as unlikely despite being "somewhat more likely than initially thought".
goldmansachs.comThe dot plot from the June 2026 meeting shows seven of 19 participants expect rates to remain unchanged this year, indicating significant internal resistance to a hike.
CNBCAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.