South Carolina Governor winner?

In 2026

$18.5K Vol.Closes Nov 3, 2027

Alan Wilson$6.9K Vol.90%

Jermaine Johnson$11.6K Vol.13%

At a glance

What

The 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election will determine the state's next governor on November 3, 2026, as incumbent Henry McMaster is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term.

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Who

Republican nominee Alan Wilson, the state attorney general, faces Democratic nominee Jermaine Johnson, a state representative from Hopkins.

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Context

The Republican primary featured five candidates including Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, but Wilson and Evette advanced to a runoff after neither secured a majority in the June 9 primary.

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Stakes

The winner will assume leadership of a "Solid R" state that has not elected a Democrat to the governor's office since 1998, potentially influencing the initial phases of the 2028 presidential election cycle.

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Note: The market resolves to "Yes" only if a Republican representative is inaugurated; since Alan Wilson is the Republican nominee, his victory would trigger this resolution.

Jun 8

President Donald Trump announced his support for both Alan Wilson and Pamela Evette shortly before the Republican primary, influencing the race dynamics in the open contest.

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Jun 9

Democratic state representative Jermaine Johnson secured the Democratic nomination by winning 59.7% of the vote against Billy Webster in the primary election.

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Jun 23

Republican state attorney general Alan Wilson won the party nomination by defeating Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette with 68.6% of the vote in a runoff election.

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Now

Nov 3

The general election for South Carolina governor will be held, where voters will select between Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson.

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AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

South Carolina is classified as a "Solid R" state with a Republican voting advantage of +8 points, making a Republican victory highly probable.
Wikipedia
Alan Wilson is the incumbent state attorney general, a position that provides established name recognition and a record of executive experience within the state.
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President Donald Trump endorsed Wilson during the primary campaign, leveraging his significant influence over South Carolina's Republican voter base.
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AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Despite the strong Republican leaning, the Democratic nominee aims to become the first Democrat elected governor since Jim Hodges in 1998, highlighting a long-standing barrier to Democratic success.
scdailygazette.com
The race was highly contested with five Republicans initially vying for the nomination, including prominent figures like Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, which could indicate a fragmented initial conservative base.
Wikipedia abcnews4.com

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