NY-04 House winner?
In 2026
$8.4K Vol.Closes Nov 3, 2027
Laura Gillen$3.7K Vol.85%
Jeanine Driscoll$4.7K Vol.20%
In 2026
The 2026 general election for New York's 4th Congressional District determines who serves as the U.S. House member for the term beginning in 2027.
Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen is running against Republican Anthony D'Esposito, a former one-term representative and former NYPD detective.
This Long Island district flipped to Democratic in 2024, and Gillen is seeking her first full term as a federal representative.
A Democratic win maintains the party's hold on this recently flipped suburban seat, while a Republican victory would return the district to GOP control.
Note: The market resolves based on the party of the member sworn in for the 2027 term, meaning the outcome depends entirely on the November 3, 2026 general election results.
Democrat incumbent Laura Gillen leads Republican challenger Anthony D'Esposito with 50% to 44% in current polling for the NY-04 House race.
whitehousebound.comPrediction markets indicate a 68% probability that the Democratic Party will win the NY-04 seat in the November 2026 election.
polymarket.comLaura Gillen advanced from the Democratic primary for the U.S. House in New York District 4, retaining her status as the incumbent.
BallotpediaThe general election for the U.S. House of Representatives in New York's 4th District takes place.
BallotpediaBallotpediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a 6-point lead in polling (50% vs. 44%) against her Republican challenger.
whitehousebound.comPrediction markets currently assign a 68% probability to a Democratic victory in NY-04, reflecting strong trader confidence.
polymarket.comThe district is rated as "Lean D" and has a D+2 partisan lean, providing a structural advantage for the Democratic candidate.
whitehousebound.comWikipediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Republican challenger Anthony D'Esposito is a former one-term representative who previously defeated Gillen in the 2022 general election.
whitehousebound.comBallotpediaAs a former NYPD detective, D'Esposito may appeal to cautious suburban voters in Long Island who prioritize law-and-order messaging.
whitehousebound.comThe polling gap of 6 points is within the margin of error for some surveys, leaving the race competitive despite the incumbent's lead.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.