PA-10 House winner?
In 2026
$13.5K Vol.Closes Nov 3, 2027
Janelle Stelson$6.3K Vol.75%
Scott Perry$7.2K Vol.27%
In 2026
The 2026 general election for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District will determine whether Democrat Janelle Stelson or Republican incumbent Scott Perry becomes the House member sworn in for the 2027 term.
The contest features Democrat Janelle Stelson against Republican Scott Perry, the current representative who has held the seat since 2013.
PA-10 covers south-central Pennsylvania including York and Cumberland Counties and is rated as "Lean Republican" with a PVI of R+3, though recent polling indicates a competitive toss-up.
polymarket.comuspollingdata.comA Stelson victory would flip a long-held Republican seat to the Democrats, while Perry's retention maintains Republican control of this district in a potentially pivotal national election year.
Note: The market resolves based on the candidate sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, which depends on the official November 3, 2026 election results as reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Janelle Stelson won the Democratic primary for PA-10 with 99% of votes, defeating Justin Douglas.
politicspa.comScott Perry won the Republican primary for PA-10 with 100% of votes, securing his nomination as the incumbent.
deepsyte.appRecent polls from Public Policy Polling show Stelson leading incumbent Perry by 3–4 points in the district ahead of the November general election.
polymarket.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Recent polling from Public Policy Polling shows Stelson leading Perry by 3–4 points, suggesting the incumbent faces significant headwinds in a competitive district.
polymarket.comThe district is rated a Cook "Toss Up" despite its R+3 PVI, indicating national Democratic momentum could override local partisan advantages.
polymarket.comStelson has secured nearly unanimous support in the Democratic primary (99%), demonstrating strong consolidation of Democratic voters ahead of the general election.
politicspa.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
PA-10 is rated "Lean Republican" with a 13-point Trump margin, making Perry a modest but persistent favorite despite polling fluctuations.
polymarket.comuspollingdata.comPerry has won consistently since 2013 and was re-elected with 50.6% of the vote in 2024, demonstrating entrenched voter support.
WikipediaPrediction markets currently favor the Republican Party at 45% probability compared to the Democratic Party at 43%, reflecting trader skepticism about a Democratic flip.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.