Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
By Dec 31, 2026
$2.6K Vol.Closes Dec 31, 2026
Above .7%$2.3 Vol.40%
Above .8%$0 Vol.26%
Above 1.00%$2.6K Vol.20%
Above .9%$0 Vol.17%
By Dec 31, 2026
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The 10-year Treasury yield exceeds the 2-year Treasury yield by approximately 0.40–0.41%, leaving the spread roughly 0.30 percentage points below the 0.7% market resolution threshold.
The U.S. Federal Reserve sets short-term rates influencing the 2-year yield, while broader market expectations on inflation and economic growth drive the 10-year yield.
The yield curve is currently "normal and upward-sloping," signaling healthy economic expectations and low near-term recession risk, with the spread comfortably positive but not yet wide enough to trigger the market.
primerates.comA spread widening to above 0.7% would indicate stronger long-term growth or inflation expectations relative to short-term rates, potentially reflecting shifting monetary policy outlooks or economic acceleration.
Note: The 10Y-2Y spread must exceed 0.7% on any daily FRED observation between issuance and Dec 31, 2026; current levels (~0.40%) require a ~30 basis point increase to resolve the market to "Above.7%".
The FRED T10Y2Y series recorded a current value of 0.40 percent, indicating the spread remains well below the 0.7% threshold.
govspending.orgTreasury yields rose, with the 10-year note at 4.559% and the 2-year note at 4.153%, creating a spread of approximately 0.406%.
CNBCThe 10Y-2Y Treasury spread was reported at +0.41 percentage points (41 basis points), slightly lower than the prior day's +0.42 pp.
primerates.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The market expects inflation to gradually return toward the Fed’s 2% target, with breakeven inflation rates between 2.34%–2.56%, which could support a modest spread expansion if long-term rates rise relative to short-term rates.
primerates.comThe 10-year Treasury yield (4.33%) is the primary driver of 30-year mortgage rates, and sustained demand for long-term assets could push the 10-year yield higher, widening the spread.
primerates.comAs of mid-July, the spread has remained solidly positive at +0.69% in some readings, showing resilience that could push it toward the 0.7% threshold if short-term rate pressures ease.
primerates.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The current spread of 0.40–0.41% is significantly below the 0.7% threshold and remains lower than the long-term average of 0.85%, suggesting limited upward momentum without a major shift in expectations.
govspending.orgycharts.comThe 2-year yield (4.16%) trades near or above Fed funds, signaling that the market may expect hikes or stable short-term rates rather than cuts, which could constrain spread expansion.
convextrade.comRecent data shows the spread narrowing slightly from +0.42 pp to +0.41 pp between July 16 and July 19, indicating a potential downward or stagnant trend rather than movement toward 0.7%.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.