CPI in November

In Nov 2026

$18.3K Vol.Closes Dec 10, 2026

Above 0.3%$2.1K Vol.99%

Above 0.1%$2.2K Vol.96%

Above 0.4%$2.7K Vol.93%

Above -0.1%$3.7K Vol.90%

Above 0.5%$4.3K Vol.89%

Above 0.0%$1.7K Vol.24%

Above 0.2%$1.7K Vol.8%

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

The U.S. is projecting its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) change for November 2026 to determine if inflation accelerated beyond 0.3% for that specific month.

Who

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the official data, while economists, the Federal Reserve, and market participants analyze the implications for interest rates.

Context

Annual inflation has fluctuated between a 2.3% low in April 2026 and a 3.5% level in June 2026, with forecasts suggesting a potential peak in early-to-mid 2026 before stabilizing near 2.5% by late 2027.

msn.com ag.purdue.edu

Stakes

A monthly increase above 0.3% would signal persistent inflationary pressure, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further in the coming year.

Note: The "Bull/Bear" arguments rely on annual inflation forecasts (e.g., 3.4%–3.5% peak) which do not directly guarantee a specific monthly change of >0.3%, as monthly CPI can fluctuate independently of the annual rate.

Dec 12, 2025

(Historical Anchor) In November 2025, the CPI increased 2.7% year-over-year, falling below economists' 3.1% forecast and marking a decline from the 3.0% rise in September 2025.

Yahoo News The Hill

Dec 12, 2025

(Historical Context) Economists forecast that inflation could peak between 3.4% and 3.5% in 2026, remaining above 3% by the end of the year, with consistent sub-3% inflation unlikely until 2027.

msn.com

Jul 14

The annual inflation rate for the 12 months ending June 2026 was 3.5%, down from 4.2% in the prior period, according to U.S. Labor Department data.

usinflationcalculator.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Inflation is forecast to remain above 3% on an annual basis by the end of 2026, driven by pass-through costs from businesses, tax refunds, and affordability policies that could push monthly CPI higher.
msn.com
Expert analysis from Fitch Ratings predicts CPI inflation will peak in the first and second quarters of 2026, with the Consumer Expenditures Price Index reaching 3.1%, suggesting underlying momentum that could sustain monthly gains above 0.3%.
msn.com
Monthly CPI inflation rates have shown volatility, with annualized monthly rates spiking to 3.75% in December 2025, indicating that even as annual rates dip, single-month jumps can exceed the 0.3% threshold.
econsnapshot.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Annual inflation pressure diminished significantly in late 2025, dropping to 2.7% year-over-year in November 2025, which was lower than the 3.1% forecast and suggests a cooling trend in price increases.
Yahoo News The Hill
Projections for 2027 anticipate the inflation rate settling near 2.5%, indicating that the upward pressure on prices may be moderating as demand decreases in upcoming months.
msn.com

At a glance

What

The U.S. is projecting its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) change for November 2026 to determine if inflation accelerated beyond 0.3% for that specific month.

Who

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the official data, while economists, the Federal Reserve, and market participants analyze the implications for interest rates.

Context

msn.com ag.purdue.edu

Stakes

A monthly increase above 0.3% would signal persistent inflationary pressure, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further in the coming year.

Dec 12, 2025

(Historical Anchor) In November 2025, the CPI increased 2.7% year-over-year, falling below economists' 3.1% forecast and marking a decline from the 3.0% rise in September 2025.

Yahoo News The Hill

Dec 12, 2025

(Historical Context) Economists forecast that inflation could peak between 3.4% and 3.5% in 2026, remaining above 3% by the end of the year, with consistent sub-3% inflation unlikely until 2027.

msn.com

Jul 14

The annual inflation rate for the 12 months ending June 2026 was 3.5%, down from 4.2% in the prior period, according to U.S. Labor Department data.

usinflationcalculator.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Inflation is forecast to remain above 3% on an annual basis by the end of 2026, driven by pass-through costs from businesses, tax refunds, and affordability policies that could push monthly CPI higher.
msn.com
Expert analysis from Fitch Ratings predicts CPI inflation will peak in the first and second quarters of 2026, with the Consumer Expenditures Price Index reaching 3.1%, suggesting underlying momentum that could sustain monthly gains above 0.3%.
msn.com
Monthly CPI inflation rates have shown volatility, with annualized monthly rates spiking to 3.75% in December 2025, indicating that even as annual rates dip, single-month jumps can exceed the 0.3% threshold.
econsnapshot.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Annual inflation pressure diminished significantly in late 2025, dropping to 2.7% year-over-year in November 2025, which was lower than the 3.1% forecast and suggests a cooling trend in price increases.
Yahoo News The Hill
Projections for 2027 anticipate the inflation rate settling near 2.5%, indicating that the upward pressure on prices may be moderating as demand decreases in upcoming months.
msn.com