Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

July 2026

$50.4K Vol.Closes Aug 12, 2026

Above 2.2%$5.1K Vol.95%

Above 2.3%$3.1K Vol.80%

Above 2.4%$1.5K Vol.79%

Above 2.6%$1.8K Vol.33%

Above 2.8%$2.3K Vol.16%

Above 2.9%$5.9K Vol.9%

Above 3.0%$5.8K Vol.8%

Above 3.2%$3.2K Vol.7%

Above 3.1%$2.4K Vol.5%

Above 3.4%$3.3K Vol.4%

And 5 more markets on this event.

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At a glance

What

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the July 2026 Core CPI YoY figure, measuring the annual inflation rate for goods and services excluding food and energy.

Who

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates and reports the data, while economists, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets analyze its impact on interest rate policy.

Context

Inflation has shown a cooling trend in recent months, with the June print dropping to 2.6% well below expectations, signaling a potential shift toward the Fed's 2% target.

Stakes

A reading above 2.1% would indicate persistent inflationary pressure, potentially complicating the Fed's path to interest rate cuts, while a lower reading would strengthen the case for monetary easing.

Note: The market resolves based on the one-decimal place value reported by the BLS; a reported value of 2.1% results in "No" (since the rule requires "more than 2.1%"), while 2.2% or higher resolves to "Yes."

Jul 14

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Core CPI YoY for June 2026 fell to 2.6%, down 0.3% from May's 2.9% reading and missing the 2.8% consensus forecast.

sigmanomics.com investing.com

Jul 14

Core inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month in June, the largest increase in six months, though the yearly rate still cooled significantly to 2.6%.

Yahoo News ey.com

Aug 12

The official CPI data for July 2026 is scheduled to be released by the BLS at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time, which will determine the market resolution.

bls.gov

Now

Aug 12

Release of the official Consumer Price Index report for July 2026 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

bls.gov

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Month-over-month core inflation rose 0.3% in June, the most significant increase in six months, suggesting underlying price pressures may not have fully dissipated.
Yahoo News
Economists note that the escalation in goods inflation is no longer balanced by a decline in services inflation, which could keep the yearly rate elevated above low thresholds.
Yahoo News
Forecasts suggest headline inflation could move toward 3.3% y/y by December, with core CPI easing more slowly to 2.4% y/y, implying July could remain above 2.1%.
ey.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

The June 2026 Core CPI YoY of 2.6% missed the 2.8% consensus by 0.2%, marking a sharp 0.3% decline from the previous 2.9% reading and indicating strong cooling momentum.
sigmanomics.com investing.com
Core inflation posted a flat monthly reading of -0.02% in the prior month (May), representing the lowest outside a recession since 2017 and pushing the yearly rate well below expectations.
ey.com
Analysts project core CPI inflation to ease toward 2.4% y/y by December, suggesting the downward trend from June's 2.6% is likely to continue into July.

Inflation

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

July 2026

$50.4K Vol.Closes Aug 12, 2026

Above 2.2%$5.1K Vol.95%

Above 2.3%$3.1K Vol.80%

Above 2.4%$1.5K Vol.79%

Above 2.6%$1.8K Vol.33%

Above 2.8%$2.3K Vol.16%

Above 2.9%$5.9K Vol.9%

Above 3.0%$5.8K Vol.8%

Above 3.2%$3.2K Vol.7%

Above 3.1%$2.4K Vol.5%

Above 3.4%$3.3K Vol.4%

And 5 more markets on this event.

View on Kalshi

Sentiment

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Core CPI

Emotions

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Core CPI

Sentiment over time

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Core CPI

Volume over time

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Core CPI

Word cloud

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Core CPI