Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?

Before Jan 1, 2027

$122.8K Vol.Closes Jan 1, 2027

Citigroup$33.5K Vol.23%

JPMorgan Chase$17.6K Vol.16%

Bank of America$18.2K Vol.13%

Morgan Stanley$24.2K Vol.6%

Goldman Sachs$29.3K Vol.5%

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

Kraken is considering a US initial public offering but has paused plans originally set for 2026 due to market conditions.

Who

The crypto exchange is in early discussions with major banks like Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs but has not selected a lead underwriter.

Context

The IPO strategy depends heavily on regulatory clarity in the US crypto sector, which remains a key hurdle for the exchange.

Stakes

A successful IPO would provide Kraken significant capital to expand operations and compete with rivals like Coinbase, while failure to list could delay growth.

Note: The market resolves to "Yes" only if Citigroup is documented as a lead underwriter in SEC filings or official announcements before January 1, 2027, even if the IPO is later shelved.

Aug 16, 2025

Kraken's US IPO, originally planned for 2026, is currently paused due to challenging market conditions.

octagonai.co

Jul 20

Kraken is engaging in discussions with banks about a potential IPO but has not yet mandated any institutions to serve as lead underwriters.

ionanalytics.com

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup acted as lead bookrunners and joint bookrunners respectively for a different crypto IPO (Gemini), not Kraken's US listing.

CoinDesk

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Citigroup participated as a joint bookrunner for a high-profile crypto offering where Goldman Sachs was the lead, demonstrating established relationships in the sector.
linkedin.com
Citigroup has been selected as the lead underwriter for other major IPOs in 2025, including Musinsa and SpaceX, indicating strong underwriting capacity and demand for its services.
msn.com coinpedia.org
The market currently prices Citigroup's probability at 37%, reflecting investor belief in its potential role despite the IPO pause.
octagonai.co

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Kraken has not mandated any banking institutions for its IPO, meaning no bank currently has a confirmed lead underwriter role.
ionanalytics.com
The US IPO was explicitly paused in 2026 due to "challenging market conditions," creating a significant timeline risk before the 2027 close date.
octagonai.co
Other banks like JPMorgan Chase (77% market probability) and Morgan Stanley (71%) are currently favored over Citigroup (50% market probability) to lead the offering.
solflare.com

Sentiment

Last 30 days

Emotions

Last 30 days

Sentiment over time

Last 30 days

Volume over time

Last 30 days

Word cloud

Last 30 days