10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

On Dec 31, 2026

$12.5K Vol.Closes Dec 31, 2026

4.75% or above$1.2K Vol.48%

5.15% or above$5.6K Vol.29%

5% or above$3.4K Vol.16%

5.1% or above$2.3K Vol.3%

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading near 4.55%, below the 4.75% threshold specified in the market outcome.

Who

The yield is determined by global bond market investors reacting to US economic data, Federal Reserve policy, and inflation trends.

Context

As of mid-July 2026, the yield has fluctuated between roughly 4.42% and 4.57% after reaching highs in early July.

tradingeconomics.com morningstar.com

Stakes

If the yield remains above 4.75% at year-end, borrowing costs for mortgages, corporate loans, and government debt will stay elevated, impacting economic growth.

Note: The yield must exceed 4.74% on December 31, 2026, to resolve "Yes," requiring a rise of approximately 20 basis points from current levels.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Elevated oil prices driven by mounting tensions between the U.S. and Iran could reignite inflation pressures, pushing yields higher.
CNBC
Inflation remained at 4.25% at the end of June 2026, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, creating sustained pressure on long-term yields.
advisorperspectives.com
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% in June, and if inflation remains sticky, the Fed may delay cuts or hike rates, supporting higher yields.
advisorperspectives.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Trading Economics global macro models estimate the 10-year yield will trade at 4.50% by the end of Q3 2026 and fall to 4.32% in 12 months.
tradingeconomics.com
The yield recently eased to 4.55% on July 17, showing a downward trend from its July highs near 4.57%.
tradingeconomics.com ycharts.com
The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 73% likelihood the Fed would hold rates steady at its July meeting, suggesting limited upward pressure from policy shifts.

At a glance

What

The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading near 4.55%, below the 4.75% threshold specified in the market outcome.

Who

The yield is determined by global bond market investors reacting to US economic data, Federal Reserve policy, and inflation trends.

Context

As of mid-July 2026, the yield has fluctuated between roughly 4.42% and 4.57% after reaching highs in early July.

tradingeconomics.com morningstar.com

Stakes

If the yield remains above 4.75% at year-end, borrowing costs for mortgages, corporate loans, and government debt will stay elevated, impacting economic growth.

Note: The yield must exceed 4.74% on December 31, 2026, to resolve "Yes," requiring a rise of approximately 20 basis points from current levels.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Elevated oil prices driven by mounting tensions between the U.S. and Iran could reignite inflation pressures, pushing yields higher.
CNBC
Inflation remained at 4.25% at the end of June 2026, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, creating sustained pressure on long-term yields.
advisorperspectives.com
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% in June, and if inflation remains sticky, the Fed may delay cuts or hike rates, supporting higher yields.
advisorperspectives.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Trading Economics global macro models estimate the 10-year yield will trade at 4.50% by the end of Q3 2026 and fall to 4.32% in 12 months.
tradingeconomics.com
The yield recently eased to 4.55% on July 17, showing a downward trend from its July highs near 4.57%.
tradingeconomics.com ycharts.com
The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 73% likelihood the Fed would hold rates steady at its July meeting, suggesting limited upward pressure from policy shifts.