2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

On Jul 31, 2026

$6.9K Vol.Closes Jul 31, 2026

3.95% or above$602 Vol.99%

4% or above$347 Vol.95%

4.05% or above$626 Vol.89%

4.1% or above$517 Vol.76%

4.15% or above$532.6 Vol.71%

4.2% or above$1.5K Vol.45%

4.25% or above$908.9 Vol.34%

4.3% or above$1.2K Vol.6%

4.35% or above$671.9 Vol.3%

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

The 2-year US Treasury yield is currently trading around 4.18% as markets assess inflation risks from rising oil prices and geopolitical tension.

Who

The Federal Reserve, bond investors, and the broader US financial market are monitoring these yields as indicators of short-term rate policy expectations.

Context

Yields have surged to their highest since February 2025 due to renewed Iran-U.S. tensions that boosted oil prices and inflation concerns.

Bloomberg

Stakes

Sustained higher yields would increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses while signaling potential Federal Reserve rate hikes to contain inflation.

Note: The 2-year Treasury yield more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate policy than longer-dated bonds, making it particularly sensitive to inflation expectations and monetary policy shifts.

Jul 13

Short-maturity yields climbed to their highest levels since early 2025 as Iran tensions pushed oil prices up, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates to combat inflation.

Bloomberg

Jul 16

The 2-year yield advanced to 4.16% as oil prices remained elevated amid mounting tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

convextrade.com govspending.org

Jul 17

The US 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.18%, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session.

tradingeconomics.com ycharts.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Oil prices have risen significantly due to Iran-U.S. tensions, directly fanning speculation that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates to combat inflation.
Bloomberg
The 2-year yield reached 4.25% on July 13, 2026, the highest level since February 2025, demonstrating strong upward momentum in short-term rates.
Bloomberg
Current yields at 4.18% are substantially higher than the long-term average of 3.25%, indicating a persistent shift toward higher rate environments.
ycharts.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

TradingEconomics estimates the 2-year yield will trade at 3.93% in 12 months, suggesting a potential decline from current levels.
tradingeconomics.com
The yield's recent rise from 4.153% to 4.18% represents only a modest 0.03 percentage point increase, indicating limited immediate upward pressure.
tradingeconomics.com CNBC
Despite the recent surge, the yield remains below the June 22 peak of 4.24%, suggesting the market may be consolidating rather than continuing its upward trajectory.

Interest rates

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

On Jul 31, 2026

$6.9K Vol.Closes Jul 31, 2026

3.95% or above$602 Vol.99%

4% or above$347 Vol.95%

4.05% or above$626 Vol.89%

4.1% or above$517 Vol.76%

4.15% or above$532.6 Vol.71%

4.2% or above$1.5K Vol.45%

4.25% or above$908.9 Vol.34%

4.3% or above$1.2K Vol.6%

4.35% or above$671.9 Vol.3%

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

The 2-year US Treasury yield is currently trading around 4.18% as markets assess inflation risks from rising oil prices and geopolitical tension.

Who

The Federal Reserve, bond investors, and the broader US financial market are monitoring these yields as indicators of short-term rate policy expectations.

Context

Yields have surged to their highest since February 2025 due to renewed Iran-U.S. tensions that boosted oil prices and inflation concerns.

Bloomberg

Stakes

Sustained higher yields would increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses while signaling potential Federal Reserve rate hikes to contain inflation.

Jul 13

Short-maturity yields climbed to their highest levels since early 2025 as Iran tensions pushed oil prices up, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates to combat inflation.

Bloomberg

Jul 16

The 2-year yield advanced to 4.16% as oil prices remained elevated amid mounting tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

convextrade.com govspending.org

Jul 17

The US 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.18%, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session.

tradingeconomics.com ycharts.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Oil prices have risen significantly due to Iran-U.S. tensions, directly fanning speculation that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates to combat inflation.
Bloomberg
The 2-year yield reached 4.25% on July 13, 2026, the highest level since February 2025, demonstrating strong upward momentum in short-term rates.
Bloomberg
Current yields at 4.18% are substantially higher than the long-term average of 3.25%, indicating a persistent shift toward higher rate environments.
ycharts.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

TradingEconomics estimates the 2-year yield will trade at 3.93% in 12 months, suggesting a potential decline from current levels.
tradingeconomics.com
The yield's recent rise from 4.153% to 4.18% represents only a modest 0.03 percentage point increase, indicating limited immediate upward pressure.
tradingeconomics.com CNBC
Despite the recent surge, the yield remains below the June 22 peak of 4.24%, suggesting the market may be consolidating rather than continuing its upward trajectory.