30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

On Jul 31, 2026

$14K Vol.Closes Jul 31, 2026

4.8% or above$4.4K Vol.97%

4.85% or above$220 Vol.95%

4.9% or above$1.2K Vol.95%

4.95% or above$1.2K Vol.95%

5% or above$862 Vol.83%

5.1% or above$1.3K Vol.57%

5.05% or above$1.6K Vol.54%

5.15% or above$1.5K Vol.11%

5.2% or above$1.7K Vol.8%

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At a glance

What

The 30-year US Treasury par yield is currently trading above 5.06% as of July 17, 2026.

Who

Investors, bond traders, and the Federal Reserve are monitoring long-term borrowing costs amid inflation and employment data releases.

Context

The yield has remained significantly higher than its long-term average of 4.74% and is pricing in roughly 100 basis points of cumulative Fed cuts by mid-2028.

ycharts.com centralbank.watch

Stakes

Sustained yields above 4.8% increase borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate debt, potentially slowing economic growth and inflation.

Note: The market resolves to "Yes" if the yield is above 4.79%; the current level of ~5.06% is well above all listed outcome thresholds including 4.8%, 5%, and 5.2%.

Jul 16

Treasury yields rose broadly as Wall Street awaited key employment data, with the 30-year bond yield adding less than 1 basis point to 5.087%.

CNBC

Jul 17

The 30-year US Treasury yield was 5.06%, down from 5.09% the previous market day.

ycharts.com

Jul 17

The yield on the US 30-year bond eased to 5.07%, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the prior session.

tradingeconomics.com

Now

Jul 21

US releases Q2 GDP advance estimate, a key data point influencing long-term yield expectations.

Jul 23

Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its July 29–30 meeting, clarifying the policy outlook for the remainder of 2026.

Jul 31

Final economic data releases and bond market trading close before the 7:30 PM UTC resolution deadline.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The 30-year yield has consistently traded above 5% in mid-July 2026, with readings of 5.053% (July 7), 5.087% (July 16), and 5.06% (July 17).
ycharts.com CNBC
Current yields are 32 basis points higher than the long-term average of 4.74%, suggesting structural支撑 from inflation expectations or supply dynamics.
ycharts.com
Markets are pricing in only 100 basis points of cumulative Fed cuts by mid-2028, implying limited near-term downward pressure on long-term yields.
centralbank.watch

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

The yield decreased from 5.09% to 5.06% between July 16 and July 17, indicating a slight short-term easing trend.
ycharts.com
Analyst estimates project the 30-year yield to trade at 4.87% in 12 months, suggesting a potential decline toward the 4.8% threshold over time.
tradingeconomics.com
The 2-year Treasury yield is 70 basis points below the policy rate, signaling market expectations for rate cuts that could eventually compress the 30-year spread.
centralbank.watch

Interest rates

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

On Jul 31, 2026

$14K Vol.Closes Jul 31, 2026

4.8% or above$4.4K Vol.97%

4.85% or above$220 Vol.95%

4.9% or above$1.2K Vol.95%

4.95% or above$1.2K Vol.95%

5% or above$862 Vol.83%

5.1% or above$1.3K Vol.57%

5.05% or above$1.6K Vol.54%

5.15% or above$1.5K Vol.11%

5.2% or above$1.7K Vol.8%

View on Kalshi

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