5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

On Jul 31, 2026

$7.9K Vol.Closes Jul 31, 2026

4.05% or above$1.3K Vol.95%

4.1% or above$740 Vol.93%

4.2% or above$592.2 Vol.92%

4.25% or above$214.2 Vol.51%

4.3% or above$983 Vol.36%

4.35% or above$587.6 Vol.16%

4.45% or above$158.2 Vol.11%

4.4% or above$1.1K Vol.9%

4.5% or above$93.8 Vol.5%

4.75% or above$5 Vol.5%

And 9 more markets on this event.

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

The 5-year U.S. Treasury par yield is currently trading around 4.28%–4.29% as markets approach the July 31, 2026 resolution date.

Who

The yield is determined by trading in the U.S. government debt market, influenced by Federal Reserve policy and investor expectations for inflation and economic growth.

Context

The yield has risen from 4.01% a year ago and sits significantly above the long-term historical average, reflecting tight monetary conditions.

Stakes

A yield of 4% or above indicates higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, while a fall below 4% would signal expectations for economic easing or rate cuts.

Note: The 5Y yield is currently 4.28%–4.29%, which is 28–29 basis points above the 4% threshold, making the "4% or above" outcome highly probable based on current data.

Jul 16

The Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity was recorded at 4.28%.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Jul 17

The yield on the US 5 Year Note Bond rose to 4.29%, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session.

tradingeconomics.com

Jul 17

The 5Y Treasury yield held at 4.28%, which is higher than the long-term average of 3.76% and compared to 4.01% last year.

ycharts.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The 5Y yield has consistently traded above 4.28% in mid-July 2026, providing a substantial buffer above the 4% threshold.
fred.stlouisfed.org ycharts.com
Trading Economics models estimate the yield will trade at 4.23% by the end of Q3 2026, remaining well above 4%.
tradingeconomics.com
The current yield is elevated relative to the 3.76% long-term average, suggesting structural factors like inflation expectations or supply demand are keeping rates higher.
ycharts.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Forecast models estimate the 5Y yield will drop to 4.03% in 12 months, indicating a potential downward trend that could approach the 4% line by late 2027.
tradingeconomics.com
Markets are pricing roughly 100 basis points of cumulative Fed rate cuts by mid-2028, which could accelerate yield declines if the transition begins sooner than expected.
centralbank.watch
The 3m10y spread currently signals a recession probability above 30%, a condition that historically drives yields lower as investors seek safety and the Fed cuts rates.
centralbank.watch

Interest rates

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

On Jul 31, 2026

$7.9K Vol.Closes Jul 31, 2026

4.05% or above$1.3K Vol.95%

4.1% or above$740 Vol.93%

4.2% or above$592.2 Vol.92%

4.25% or above$214.2 Vol.51%

4.3% or above$983 Vol.36%

4.35% or above$587.6 Vol.16%

4.45% or above$158.2 Vol.11%

4.4% or above$1.1K Vol.9%

4.5% or above$93.8 Vol.5%

4.75% or above$5 Vol.5%

And 9 more markets on this event.

View on Kalshi

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