7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

On Jul 31, 2026

$8.5K Vol.Closes Jul 31, 2026

4.15% or above$542 Vol.95%

4.2% or above$968.9 Vol.94%

4.35% or above$573 Vol.91%

4.4% or above$1K Vol.70%

4.45% or above$1K Vol.53%

4.55% or above$1.2K Vol.39%

4.5% or above$418.7 Vol.36%

4.6% or above$601.3 Vol.21%

4.65% or above$220 Vol.11%

4.7% or above$215 Vol.6%

And 9 more markets on this event.

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

The 7-year US Treasury par yield is currently trading near 4.40%–4.41% as of mid-July 2026.

Who

The yield is determined by global bond market participants trading US government debt, with the Federal Reserve setting the policy rate at 4.25%.

centralbank.watch

Context

Yields have risen year-over-year and are currently above the long-term average of 4.04%.

ycharts.com

Stakes

A yield above 4.29% on July 31, 2026, would signal continued elevated borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate debt, reflecting market expectations of roughly 100 basis points of cumulative Fed cuts by mid-2028.

centralbank.watch

Note: The market resolves to "Yes" if the 7Y par yield is above 4.29%, not strictly 4.3%, so the 4.3% or above outcome is a subset of the broader resolution condition.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The yield has recently trended upward, rising from 4.22% last year to 4.40%–4.41% in July 2026, staying well above the 4.3% threshold.
tradingeconomics.com ycharts.com
Current market pricing implies the 7-year yield is expected to trade at 4.36% by the end of the quarter, which remains above the 4.3% level.
tradingeconomics.com
The 7-year rate is significantly higher than the long-term average of 4.04%, suggesting a structural environment of elevated yields.
ycharts.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Forward models estimate the 7-year yield will trade at 4.15% in 12 months, indicating a potential downward trend that could pressure levels below 4.3% if the move begins early.
tradingeconomics.com
Markets are pricing roughly 100 basis points of cumulative Federal Reserve cuts by mid-2028, which could drive yields down from current levels if the policy pivot accelerates.
centralbank.watch
The 2-year Treasury yield is currently 70 basis points below the policy rate, signaling that markets expect significant rate reductions that may compress the 7-year yield over time.
centralbank.watch

Interest rates

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

On Jul 31, 2026

$8.5K Vol.Closes Jul 31, 2026

4.15% or above$542 Vol.95%

4.2% or above$968.9 Vol.94%

4.35% or above$573 Vol.91%

4.4% or above$1K Vol.70%

4.45% or above$1K Vol.53%

4.55% or above$1.2K Vol.39%

4.5% or above$418.7 Vol.36%

4.6% or above$601.3 Vol.21%

4.65% or above$220 Vol.11%

4.7% or above$215 Vol.6%

And 9 more markets on this event.

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

The 7-year US Treasury par yield is currently trading near 4.40%–4.41% as of mid-July 2026.

Who

The yield is determined by global bond market participants trading US government debt, with the Federal Reserve setting the policy rate at 4.25%.

centralbank.watch

Context

Yields have risen year-over-year and are currently above the long-term average of 4.04%.

ycharts.com

Stakes

centralbank.watch

Note: The market resolves to "Yes" if the 7Y par yield is above 4.29%, not strictly 4.3%, so the 4.3% or above outcome is a subset of the broader resolution condition.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The yield has recently trended upward, rising from 4.22% last year to 4.40%–4.41% in July 2026, staying well above the 4.3% threshold.
tradingeconomics.com ycharts.com
Current market pricing implies the 7-year yield is expected to trade at 4.36% by the end of the quarter, which remains above the 4.3% level.
tradingeconomics.com
The 7-year rate is significantly higher than the long-term average of 4.04%, suggesting a structural environment of elevated yields.
ycharts.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Forward models estimate the 7-year yield will trade at 4.15% in 12 months, indicating a potential downward trend that could pressure levels below 4.3% if the move begins early.
tradingeconomics.com
Markets are pricing roughly 100 basis points of cumulative Federal Reserve cuts by mid-2028, which could drive yields down from current levels if the policy pivot accelerates.
centralbank.watch
The 2-year Treasury yield is currently 70 basis points below the policy rate, signaling that markets expect significant rate reductions that may compress the 7-year yield over time.
centralbank.watch