2028 Republican VP nominee

In 2028

$1.2M Vol.Closes Nov 7, 2028

Marco Rubio$272.4K Vol.28%

J.D. Vance$178K Vol.7%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders$56.6K Vol.5%

Donald J. Trump$106K Vol.4%

Glenn Youngkin$47.7K Vol.4%

Donald J. Trump Jr.$60.9K Vol.3%

Byron Donalds$27.8K Vol.3%

Elise Stefanik$42.7K Vol.3%

Tulsi Gabbard$40.2K Vol.3%

Katie Britt$25.2K Vol.3%

And 11 more markets on this event.

View on Kalshi

At a glance

What

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a leading potential candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, though he has publicly stated he would not run if J.D. Vance enters the race.

CNN Wikipedia

Who

The key figures are Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance, who are viewed as the top two successors to President Donald Trump within the MAGA movement.

NBC News youtube.com

Context

Trump has repeatedly named Vance and Rubio as his most likely successors and suggested they could form an "unstoppable" ticket together, with insiders expecting Rubio to serve as Vance's running mate.

youtube.com Wikipedia

Stakes

If Rubio accepts the 2028 Republican Vice Presidency nomination, this market resolves to Yes, making his potential role as VP the critical factor rather than his presidential candidacy[Resolution rules].

Note: The market resolves to "Yes" only if Rubio accepts the Vice Presidency nomination, not if he runs for President or remains a presidential contender.

Mar 1

Following Rubio's prominent role in the Iran war in March 2026, speculation increased that he would run for president in 2028, though he has publicly deferred on campaign ambitions.

Wikipedia

Jun 1

Despite some Trump advisers privately pushing for Rubio to become the 2028 nominee, current polling and market odds still favor Vance as the clear frontrunner.

facebook.com independent.co.uk

Jun 20

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that J.D. Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed his support for Vance.

CNN polymarket.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Rubio secured second place in the 2026 CPAC straw poll with 35% of votes, showing a significant resurgence in appeal among Trump's core supporters compared to his 3% support in 2025.
The Hill
Rubio possesses extensive influence inside the administration, having led the State Department and played a central role in shaping U.S. foreign policy from Middle East diplomacy to Venezuela, giving him a national security advantage.
katiecouric.com
Trump has signaled support for both Vance and Rubio, suggesting they would form an "unstoppable" ticket together, and insiders report the prevailing expectation is for Rubio to serve as Vance's running mate.
The Hill Yahoo News

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Rubio has explicitly stated he will not enter the 2028 race if J.D. Vance enters, and privately expects Vance to be the nominee if he chooses to run.
Wikipedia Yahoo News
Recent polls show Vance as the hypothetical GOP frontrunner by a wide margin, with Rubio trailing significantly in second place (46% vs 12% in Emerson College polling).
The Hill independent.co.uk

2028

2028 Republican VP nominee

In 2028

$1.2M Vol.Closes Nov 7, 2028

Marco Rubio$272.4K Vol.28%

J.D. Vance$178K Vol.7%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders$56.6K Vol.5%

Donald J. Trump$106K Vol.4%

Glenn Youngkin$47.7K Vol.4%

Donald J. Trump Jr.$60.9K Vol.3%

Byron Donalds$27.8K Vol.3%

Elise Stefanik$42.7K Vol.3%

Tulsi Gabbard$40.2K Vol.3%

Katie Britt$25.2K Vol.3%

And 11 more markets on this event.

View on Kalshi

Sentiment

Last 30 days

Rubio

Emotions

Last 30 days

Rubio

Sentiment over time

Last 30 days

Rubio

Volume over time

Last 30 days

Rubio

Word cloud

Last 30 days

Rubio