
In 2028
The 2028 Alaska Senate election will determine who holds the seat currently occupied by incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski for the term beginning in 2029.
The primary contest is expected to feature incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) against potential challengers including Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) and James Michael Ryan (R), with the Democratic party likely to nominate a candidate to challenge the eventual Republican nominee.
Alaska utilizes a top-four primary and ranked-choice voting system for Senate elections, which previously allowed Murkowski to win in 2024 by consolidating Democratic voters after eliminating a third-party candidate.
Wikipediaindependent.co.ukThe outcome determines whether Alaska retains its second Republican Senator in the 100-seat Congress or flips the seat to the Democratic party, impacting the national party balance in the Senate.
Note: Mary Peltola (D) is currently running for the 2026 Senate seat held by Dan Sullivan (R), not the 2028 seat held by Murkowski; any 2028 Democratic nominee will likely be a different candidate.
Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski won reelection in Alaska's 2024 Senate race, defeating Trump-endorsed GOP rival Kelly Tshibaka in a ranked-choice vote to secure her seat for the term ending in 2028.
Wikipediaindependent.co.ukJames Michael Ryan, an employee of Kosmos Energy, has formally filed to run against Murkowski in the 2028 election, adding another Republican challenger to the potential primary.
WikipediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Alaska remains a "Safe Republican" state in Senate ratings due to its strong Republican lean and the likelihood that multiple Republican candidates will prevent Democrats from consolidating behind a single nominee.
thepostrider.comIncumbent Lisa Murkowski has demonstrated electoral resilience in Alaska's unique ranked-choice system, having defeated a Trump-endorsed rival in 2024 by securing 54% of the final vote after gaining Democratic support.
independent.co.ukThe Republican coalition in Alaska is divided between Murkowski and Trump-backed figures like Dunleavy and Tshibaka, but historical data suggests incumbents in ranked-choice systems often benefit from being the second choice for voters opposing the primary frontrunner.
thepostrider.comindependent.co.ukAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Governor Mike Dunleavy is expected to challenge Murkowski, creating a high-profile intra-party fight that could split the Republican vote and weaken the party's overall chances in the general election.
WikipediaFox NewsThe seat is identified as a "top Dem national target race," suggesting the Democratic party will allocate significant resources and a strong candidate to contest the seat.
politics1.comMurkowski's 2024 victory margin of 6.29 percentage points (based on 2022 data trends) indicates a competitive seat where a strong primary challenger or unified Democratic opposition could flip the result.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.