
In 2028
Arizona will hold a U.S. Senate election in November 2028 to determine the successor to Democrat Mark Kelly, whose term expires in early 2029.
The election features incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly (intent uncertain) versus a Republican primary field where Kari Lake currently leads.
Kelly won his last full term in 2022 with 51.4% of the vote, while the state has recently seen a Democratic Senate victory with Ruben Gallego defeating Lake in 2024.
WikipediaAP NewsThe winner will determine whether Arizona retains its two-Democrat Senate representation or gains a Republican seat, impacting the national partisan balance in the Senate.
Note: The market resolves based on the party of the senator sworn in for the 2029 term; since Gallego's term ends in 2030, the 2028 election specifically determines Kelly's successor.
The Associated Press called the Arizona Senate race for Democrat Ruben Gallego, who defeated Republican Kari Lake to secure the seat beginning in 2025.
AP NewsIncumbent Democrat Mark Kelly, whose term ends January 3, 2029, filed paperwork to run for re-election but stated he would "seriously consider" a run for the 2028 presidency.
WikipediaA hypothetical GOP primary poll shows Kari Lake leading potential rivals with 38% support, though 29% of respondents remain undecided.
The HillThe Arizona Republican Party primary election date to determine the official GOP nominee for the 2028 Senate race.
The HillMark Kelly's potential official announcement regarding whether he will run for re-election in 2028 or pursue the presidency.
WikipediaThe general election for the U.S. Senate in Arizona where the winner will be determined.
BallotpediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Mark Kelly has filed official paperwork to run for re-election, signaling a strong likelihood he will seek the seat despite his presidential considerations.
WikipediaKelly previously demonstrated electability in Arizona by winning his 2022 full term with 51.4% of the vote, a margin that suggests staying power in a competitive state.
WikipediaThe state recently elected Democrat Ruben Gallego to the Senate with a lead over Kari Lake, indicating shifting or favorable trends for Democratic candidates in high-profile statewide races.
AP NewsAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Mark Kelly has publicly stated he would "seriously consider" a run for the 2028 presidency, creating significant uncertainty about his commitment to the Senate race.
WikipediaIn a hypothetical Republican primary, Kari Lake holds a wide lead with 38% support, positioning her as a formidable challenger if she secures the nomination.
The HillArizona is a swing state where the 2024 presidential margin showed Trump winning with 52.7% versus Harris at 46.3%, suggesting a potential Republican advantage in the general election.
Yahoo NewsAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.