California Senate winner? (2028)
In 2028
$1.8K Vol.Closes Nov 7, 2029
Democratic party$211 Vol.90%
Republican party$1.6K Vol.6%
In 2028
The 2028 U.S. Senate election in California will determine who serves the term beginning in January 2029, with incumbent Democrat Alex Padilla seeking re-election.
The race features incumbent Alex Padilla (D) as the primary candidate, while the Republican party has yet to secure a major nominee to challenge him decisively.
California uses a top-two primary system where all candidates appear on one ballot, and the top two finishers advance to the general election on November 7, 2028.
integrityindex.usBallotpediaA Democratic victory would maintain California's status as having two Democratic U.S. Senators, while a Republican win would break the state's double-Democrat Senate representation for the 2029–2035 term.
senatemajority.comNote: The market resolves based on the party of the senator sworn in for the term beginning in 2029, regardless of whether the election is a regular or special election, provided the term start aligns with the 2029 cycle.
Padilla's current term ends on January 3, 2029, setting the timeline for the next senator to be sworn in for the term beginning in 2029.
BallotpediaThe primary election date for the 2028 U.S. Senate seat in California has been set for June 2, 2028, utilizing the state's top-two primary system.
integrityindex.usIncumbent Democratic Senator Alex Padilla is officially running for re-election to a second full term in the 2028 California Senate race.
Wikipediasenatemajority.comCalifornia holds the top-two primary election for the U.S. Senate seat, determining which two candidates advance to the general election.
integrityindex.usThe general election for the U.S. Senate in California takes place, concurrently with the 2028 presidential election.
Ballotpediamockelections.miraheze.orgAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Incumbent Alex Padilla has raised $1.3 million in 2026 fundraising, demonstrating strong early financial support and campaign organization.
integrityindex.usPadilla won his first full term in 2022 with 61.1% of the vote, evidencing a deep base of support in California's heavily Democratic electorate.
WikipediaHistorical projections and past primary performance suggest no major Republican candidate has yet emerged to mount a credible challenge against Padilla.
Wikipediamockelections.miraheze.orgAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Padilla's "Grade" on the Integrity Index is listed as D-, indicating potential concerns about his fundraising efficiency or political standing relative to peers.
integrityindex.usThe top-two primary system allows for vote-splitting among Democrats, which could theoretically enable a Republican candidate to advance if Democratic competitors fragment the vote.
integrityindex.usBallotpediaWhile no major Republicans have challenged Padilla yet, the 2028 election coincides with the presidential race, which could mobilize higher opposition turnout in a nationalized environment.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.