Florida Senate winner? (2028)
In 2028
$5.1K Vol.Closes Nov 7, 2029
Republican party$3.9K Vol.82%
Democratic party$1.2K Vol.12%
In 2028
The 2028 United States Senate election in Florida will determine the senator serving the term beginning in 2029, specifically filling the vacancy created by Marco Rubio's resignation.
The race involves Republican candidates (including potential contenders for the seat Rubio vacated) and Democratic candidates such as Alan Grayson, who has filed for the 2028 FL-Sen race.
secure.actblue.comFlorida is a deep-red state where Republicans hold a supermajority in the state Senate (27 seats) and have held the U.S. Senate seat since Rubio's 2012 election, though interim successor Ashley Moody was appointed to serve until the 2026 special election.
WikipediaWikipediaWinning this seat maintains Republican control of the U.S. Senate chamber, while a Democratic victory would significantly shift the legislative balance in a critical swing-state-adjacent stronghold.
Note: The market resolves based on the senator sworn in for the term beginning in 2029, which corresponds to the winner of the November 7, 2028, general election, not the 2026 special election that filled the remainder of Rubio's original term.
Republican Rick Scott defeated challengers in the primary for the U.S. Senate seat Scott is currently holding, which is not the seat up for election in 2028.
BallotpediaThree-term Republican U.S. Senator Marco Rubio resigned after being confirmed as U.S. Secretary of State, creating a vacancy for the 2028 term.
WikipediaFlorida Senate Democrats unanimously elected Shevrin Jones as their leader beginning in 2028 to guide the party's strategy for upcoming state and federal races.
miamiherald.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Florida has voted for Republican presidential candidates in every election since 1988, and the state's U.S. Senate seat has been held by Republicans continuously since 1989.
WikipediaThe Republican Party holds a 27-to-12 supermajority in the Florida Senate, indicating strong structural dominance that typically translates to federal election success.
WikipediaInterim Senator Ashley Moody, a Republican appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis, successfully served the interim term, reinforcing the party's organizational strength in filling Rubio's vacancy.
WikipediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Democratic candidate Alan Grayson, a former U.S. Congressman with high name recognition in Florida, has officially filed paperwork to run for the 2028 U.S. Senate seat.
secure.actblue.comThe vacancy created by Rubio's resignation to join the Trump administration as Secretary of State could energize Democratic opposition if the national political climate shifts against the party in 2028.
WikipediaWhile Republicans dominate the state legislature, U.S. Senate races in Florida have occasionally seen competitive margins (Rubio won 57.68% in 2022), suggesting the seat is not immune to Democratic challenges in a favorable national environment.
WikipediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.