Iowa Senate winner?
In 2026
$435.6K Vol.Closes Nov 3, 2027
Ashley Hinson$271.4K Vol.63%
Josh Turek$164.2K Vol.37%
In 2026
Iowa voters will elect a new U.S. Senator on November 3, 2026, to replace retiring incumbent Joni Ernst (R) in a race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek.
The primary contenders are U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), endorsed by President Trump and GOP leaders, and Iowa State Rep. Josh Turek (D), a disabilities advocate and Paralympics gold medalist.
This is Iowa’s third open Senate seat in five decades, with the state rated a “Toss-Up” by forecasters due to agricultural tariff concerns and a strong national Democratic environment despite Iowa’s R+13 presidential lean.
uspollingdata.comRetaining the seat would maintain Republican control of the chamber, while a Democratic win would shift power dynamics and boost national momentum for the party in a traditionally red state.
uspollingdata.comNote: The market resolves to “Yes” if a Republican is sworn in for the 2027 term, meaning Hinson’s victory triggers a “Yes” outcome while Turek’s win resolves to “No.”
Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson won the GOP primary with 73.9% of the vote, securing endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
WikipediaDemocratic state representative Josh Turek won the Democratic nomination with 62.6% of the vote over state senator Zach Wahls.
WikipediaThe general election for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to fill the Class II seat previously held by retiring Joni Ernst.
BallotpediaWikipediaGeneral election for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat where voters will choose between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek.
BallotpediaWikipediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Hinson is the established GOP frontrunner with high-profile endorsements from Senate Majority Leader Thune, NRSC chair Scott, and President Trump, giving her significant name recognition and fundraising advantages.
Wikipediauspollingdata.comElection analysts from Cook Political, Crystal Sab, and Inside Elections continue to classify the race as “likely Republican,” reflecting Iowa’s underlying conservative lean even in open-seat scenarios.
usatoday.comThe Republican Party holds a 33–17 majority in the Iowa Senate, indicating strong statewide organizational strength that could translate to voter turnout and grassroots support.
bleedingheartland.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Major forecasters now rate Iowa as a “Toss-Up” for this race, citing severe agricultural tariff damage and a D+6 national generic ballot that have eroded Republicans’ traditional advantage.
uspollingdata.comJosh Turek, a Paralympics gold medalist and disabilities advocate, has mobilized a surge of Democratic interest in the race, capitalizing on the open-seat dynamic to challenge GOP dominance.
NBC Newsusatoday.comJoni Ernst’s 2020 win was only 6 points in a race widely considered a toss-up, suggesting the state’s margin is narrower than its presidential lean and vulnerable to national Democratic trends.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.