Montana Senate winner?
In 2026
$234.9K Vol.Closes Nov 3, 2027
Kurt Alme$87.2K Vol.86%
Seth Bodnar$101.4K Vol.13%
Alani Bankhead$46.3K Vol.4%
In 2026
The 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election is determining who will replace outgoing Republican Senator Steve Daines for the term beginning in 2027.
Republican nominee Kurt Alme is facing Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent candidate Seth Bodnar in the November 3, 2026 general election.
Alme won the Republican primary decisively as the sole major GOP candidate backed by the state's top Republicans and the President, while the Democratic and independent fields remain divided.
A Republican victory would maintain Montana's single U.S. Senate seat in GOP hands, contributing to the party's effort to retain or gain a majority in the upper chamber.
Note: The market resolves to "Yes" if a Republican is sworn in for the 2027 term; since Alme is the Republican nominee and Montana is heavily Republican, the primary path to a "Yes" resolution depends on his victory in the November 3 general election.
Former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme filed to run for the Senate just minutes after incumbent Republican Steve Daines withdrew, receiving immediate endorsements from Daines and President Donald Trump.
dailymontanan.comnationaltoday.comKansas-based polling and prediction markets previously showed a competitive race between Alme and Bodnar, though recent dynamics shifted after Bankhead secured the Democratic nomination.
youtube.comRepublican Kurt Alme was declared the winner of Montana's GOP U.S. Senate primary with approximately 76% of the vote, advancing to the November general election against Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar.
projects.montanafreepress.orgdailyinterlake.comThe general election for the U.S. Senate seat in Montana will be held, with results determining the winner of the term starting in 2027.
WikipediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Alme holds a massive structural advantage in Montana, a state with a 20-point Trump margin in 2024 and no Democratic statewide win in years, making him the heavy favorite according to forecasters.
legis1.comAs the only major Republican candidate, Alme secured 76.2% of the Republican primary vote and commands the unified support of Gov. Greg Gianforte, Senators Sheehy and Daines, and President Trump.
Wikipediaktvh.comAlme's campaign has raised overwhelmingly more money than other Republican primary contenders and is the only GOP candidate running television advertisements, providing significant electoral reach.
ktvh.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
New polling indicates a potentially competitive race where independent Seth Bodnar is tied with Alme in a head-to-head matchup, with one poll showing Alme leading Bodnar only by 4 points (52% to 48%).
youtube.comThe presence of a strong independent candidate like Bodnar, who previously served as University of Montana president, could siphon conservative or moderate votes away from Alme in a three-way general election.
Wikipediamontanafreepress.orgMitt-term elections are historically a referendum on the party and president in control, creating a vulnerability for Alme as the handpicked successor of an outgoing Republican Senator in a cycle that may favor the opposition.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.