Texas Senate winner?
In 2026
$6.1M Vol.Closes Nov 3, 2027
Ken Paxton$3.3M Vol.57%
James Talarico$2.8M Vol.43%
In 2026
The upcoming November 3, 2026 general election will determine the next U.S. Senator from Texas between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
The contenders are Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who secured the Republican nomination after a primary runoff, and State Representative James Talarico, who won the Democratic primary.
This race fills the seat currently held by John Cornyn, who lost his renomination, and is located in a state political environment that historically favors Republicans.
A Republican victory maintains the party's hold on the seat and contributes to the national Senate balance, while a Democratic win would flip a historically Republican position.
Note: The market resolves to "Yes" (Ken Paxton) if a Republican is sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, meaning a Paxton victory directly satisfies the resolution condition.
State Representative James Talarico won the Democratic primary against U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett to become the party's nominee.
ontheissues.orgapps.npr.orgTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat.
Ballotpediaapps.npr.orgThe general election between Paxton and Talarico is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with the market currently assigning Paxton a 56% chance of winning.
Wikipediapolymarket.comGeneral election for the U.S. Senate in Texas between Ken Paxton and James Talarico.
fox7austin.comYahoo NewsAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The state is rated as "Likely Republican" by major political analysis firms including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball.
BallotpediaKen Paxton leads John Cornyn by 3 percentage points among likely voters in the May 2026 runoff, indicating strong momentum within the Republican base after defeating an incumbent.
uh.eduThe incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred with 53% of the vote in the 2024 general election, demonstrating sustained Republican strength in statewide Texas races.
BallotpediaAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The general election between Paxton and Talarico is described as "expected to have a competitive race," suggesting the outcome is not guaranteed despite the state's lean.
WikipediaJames Talarico won the Democratic primary decisively, securing the nomination against a well-known opponent like Jasmine Crockett, which could consolidate Democratic support early.
apps.npr.orgPolitical market data shows the outcome is not a lock, with Talarico holding a 44% probability of winning according to crowd-sourced trading on Polymarket.
polymarket.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.