AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

$455.4K Vol.Closes Jul 21, 2026

Jay Feely$17.9K Vol.91%

Joseph Chaplik$22.7K Vol.8%

Paul Reevs$225.9K Vol.<1%

Matt Gress$49.8K Vol.<1%

Todd Graham$8.6K Vol.<1%

Kari Lake$8K Vol.<1%

Derrick Gallego$4.7K Vol.<1%

John Trobough$4.5K Vol.<1%

Gina Swoboda$6K Vol.<1%

Jason Duey$3.8K Vol.<1%

And 3 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

The Republican primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District is scheduled for July 21, 2026, to determine the nominee for the 2026 midterm election.

Who

Former NFL kicker and CBS analyst Jay Feely is the frontrunner, facing state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough.

Context

Feely pivoted from the 5th District to this race after receiving President Donald Trump's endorsement, which he cited as a key reason for his candidacy.

Ballotpedia cronkitenews.azpbs.org

Stakes

The district is a top battleground for House control, and a Feely win would secure a Trump-backed conservative a seat currently held by Republican David Schweikert.

usatoday.com boltsmag.org

Note: The primary election is scheduled for July 21, 2026, creating a window of less than two days between today and the vote.

May 16

Feely sharpened attacks against rival John Trobough, criticizing Trobough's past service as a presidential innovation fellow in the Obama administration.

newsmax.com

Jun 24

Feely, Joseph Chaplik, and John Trobough participated in an official Arizona CD1 Republican primary debate two days before the July 21 election.

youtube.com

Jun 25

Pro-AI super PAC Leading the Future announced a $600,000 expenditure to boost Jay Feely's congressional bid in the Arizona CD1 Republican primary.

azcentral.com

Now

Jul 21

Republican primary election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District.

Ballotpedia cronkitenews.azpbs.org

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Feely holds President Donald Trump's endorsement, which is a significant advantage in a competitive Republican primary.
Ballotpedia newsmax.com
A pro-AI super PAC committed $600,000 to support Feely, providing a substantial financial boost over his rivals.
azcentral.com
Multiple sources identify Feely as the clear frontrunner due to his Trump backing and outsider conservative appeal in the district.
Ballotpedia boltsmag.org

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Feely lacks prior political experience, having never held elected office or served in government before this campaign.
justthenews.com Yahoo News
Feely faces a competitive challenge from Joseph Chaplik, a sitting state representative with established legislative experience in the district.
Ballotpedia

2028

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

$455.4K Vol.Closes Jul 21, 2026

Jay Feely$17.9K Vol.91%

Joseph Chaplik$22.7K Vol.8%

Paul Reevs$225.9K Vol.<1%

Matt Gress$49.8K Vol.<1%

Todd Graham$8.6K Vol.<1%

Kari Lake$8K Vol.<1%

Derrick Gallego$4.7K Vol.<1%

John Trobough$4.5K Vol.<1%

Gina Swoboda$6K Vol.<1%

Jason Duey$3.8K Vol.<1%

And 3 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

The Republican primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District is scheduled for July 21, 2026, to determine the nominee for the 2026 midterm election.

Who

Former NFL kicker and CBS analyst Jay Feely is the frontrunner, facing state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough.

Context

Feely pivoted from the 5th District to this race after receiving President Donald Trump's endorsement, which he cited as a key reason for his candidacy.

Ballotpedia cronkitenews.azpbs.org

Stakes

The district is a top battleground for House control, and a Feely win would secure a Trump-backed conservative a seat currently held by Republican David Schweikert.

usatoday.com boltsmag.org

Note: The primary election is scheduled for July 21, 2026, creating a window of less than two days between today and the vote.

May 16

Feely sharpened attacks against rival John Trobough, criticizing Trobough's past service as a presidential innovation fellow in the Obama administration.

newsmax.com

Jun 24

Feely, Joseph Chaplik, and John Trobough participated in an official Arizona CD1 Republican primary debate two days before the July 21 election.

youtube.com

Jun 25

Pro-AI super PAC Leading the Future announced a $600,000 expenditure to boost Jay Feely's congressional bid in the Arizona CD1 Republican primary.

azcentral.com

Now

Jul 21

Republican primary election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District.

Ballotpedia cronkitenews.azpbs.org

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Feely holds President Donald Trump's endorsement, which is a significant advantage in a competitive Republican primary.
Ballotpedia newsmax.com
A pro-AI super PAC committed $600,000 to support Feely, providing a substantial financial boost over his rivals.
azcentral.com
Multiple sources identify Feely as the clear frontrunner due to his Trump backing and outsider conservative appeal in the district.
Ballotpedia boltsmag.org

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Feely lacks prior political experience, having never held elected office or served in government before this campaign.
justthenews.com Yahoo News
Feely faces a competitive challenge from Joseph Chaplik, a sitting state representative with established legislative experience in the district.
Ballotpedia

Sentiment

Last 30 days

Jay Feely

Emotions

Last 30 days

Jay Feely

Sentiment over time

Last 30 days

Jay Feely

Volume over time

Last 30 days

Jay Feely

Word cloud

Last 30 days

Jay Feely