Brazil Presidential Election

$113.9M Vol.Closes Oct 4, 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva$7.5M Vol.60%

Flávio Bolsonaro$7.5M Vol.26%

Renan Santos$8.2M Vol.8%

Michelle Bolsonaro$9.1M Vol.2%

Ronaldo Caiado$5M Vol.1%

Jair Bolsonaro$5.1M Vol.1%

Camilo Santana$3.9M Vol.1%

Romeu Zema$4.4M Vol.1%

Fernando Haddad$6.3M Vol.1%

Geraldo Alckmin$4.7M Vol.<1%

And 7 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is campaigning for an unprecedented fourth non-consecutive term in Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election.

Who

The race is primarily a head-to-head contest between Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL), son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Context

Lula leads in both first-round and potential runoff polling as of mid-July 2026, with his advantage widening after scandals eroded support for Flávio.

Stakes

A Lula victory would extend his left-wing economic and social policies for another four years, while a Flávio win would likely pivot Brazil toward right-wing conservatism and align more closely with his father's legacy.

Note: Brazil's election system requires a second-round runoff if no candidate secures over 50% in the first round, which polling suggests is near-certain for this contest.

Jun 20

A Datafolha poll (20 June) recorded a runoff result of Lula 47%–Flávio 43%, supporting his consolidation as the clear frontrunner ahead of the October vote.

riotimesonline.com

Jul 13

The most recent Meio/Ideia survey (3–6 July) places Lula at 40.4% and Flávio at 32% in the first round, a gap that sharpened after audio recordings linked Flávio to a film-funding deal with disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro.

riotimesonline.com

Jul 15

A Quaest poll commissioned by Genial brokerage shows President Lula widening his runoff lead over Flávio Bolsonaro to 45%–37%.

Reuters

Now

Sep 1

Final month of active campaigning and televised debates before the October 4 vote.

Oct 4

First-round voting day; if no candidate exceeds 50%, a second-round runoff is scheduled for October 25.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Lula holds a clear and widening lead in multiple recent polls, including a 45%–37% runoff advantage in the Quaest survey released July 15.
Reuters
Flávio Bolsonaro's support has declined following audio leaks linking him to a film-funding deal with disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, which opened a sharp gap in Lula's favor.
riotimesonline.com
Prediction markets reflect Lula's frontrunner status, with his implied probability at approximately 61% on Polymarket and 62¢ on Kalshi as of mid-July.
riotimesonline.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Earlier polls from April and May showed a statistical deadlock, with a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey (April 24–26) recording a dead heat at 46% vs. 45% in the runoff.
riotimesonline.com
Flávio Bolsonaro has demonstrated resilience by gaining ground in previous months, including a Datafolha poll in April where he numerically outperformed Lula within the margin of error.
Reuters
Both candidates face significant voter rejection, limiting their ability to expand beyond core support bases in a potential second-round scenario.
newsletters.brazilian.report

International

Brazil Presidential Election

$113.9M Vol.Closes Oct 4, 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva$7.5M Vol.60%

Flávio Bolsonaro$7.5M Vol.26%

Renan Santos$8.2M Vol.8%

Michelle Bolsonaro$9.1M Vol.2%

Ronaldo Caiado$5M Vol.1%

Jair Bolsonaro$5.1M Vol.1%

Camilo Santana$3.9M Vol.1%

Romeu Zema$4.4M Vol.1%

Fernando Haddad$6.3M Vol.1%

Geraldo Alckmin$4.7M Vol.<1%

And 7 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

Sentiment

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