China Annual GDP Growth 2026

$788.1K Vol.Closes Jan 31, 2026

4.0–5.0%$204.5K Vol.86%

5.0–6.0%$77.1K Vol.11%

3.0–4.0%$72.7K Vol.2%

6.0-7.0%$67.9K Vol.1%

<1.0%$62.8K Vol.<1%

7.0–8.0%$62.5K Vol.<1%

8.0–9.0%$30.4K Vol.<1%

1.0–2.0%$74.1K Vol.<1%

2.0–3.0%$43.7K Vol.<1%

9.0%+$92.3K Vol.<1%

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

China is aiming for full-year GDP growth between 4.5% and 5.0% in 2026 following a 5.0% expansion in the first quarter.

Who

The National Bureau of Statistics will report the official final figure in January 2027, while policymakers including Premier Li Qiang set the annual targets.

Context

Growth accelerated from 4.5% in late 2025 due to a 14.7% surge in exports and high-tech manufacturing, though consumer spending remains weak.

chinadata.live am.jpmorgan.com

Stakes

Falling below 4.5% could signal structural demand issues and limit policy flexibility, while hitting 5.0% would validate the export-driven recovery strategy.

china-briefing.com am.jpmorgan.com

Note: The official figure will be released in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" for Q4 and the full year 2026 in January 2027, which is the sole resolution source for the market.

Apr 16

China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, accelerating 0.5 percentage points from Q4 2025 and surpassing economist consensus of 4.8%.

chinadata.live CNBC

Apr 16

The government confirmed a full-year 2026 growth target range of 4.5%–5.0%, the first downgrade from a point target in three years amid weak domestic demand.

straitstimes.com youtube.com

Jun 1

The World Bank projected China's economy to expand by 4.4% in 2026, slightly below the government's target floor.

thedocs.worldbank.org

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Q1 2026 growth of 5.0% hit the upper bound of the official target, driven by robust exports and high-tech manufacturing that offset weak domestic consumption.
chinadata.live am.jpmorgan.com
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 real GDP forecast to 4.8% (above the 4.5% consensus) based on sustained export strength and advanced manufacturing gains from the new Five-Year Plan.
goldmansachs.com goldmansachs.com
The government explicitly stated it will "strive for better" than the 4.5%–5.0% target, indicating a willingness to deploy stimulus if growth trends downward.
english.www.gov.cn youtube.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

The World Bank projects only 4.4% growth for 2026, citing persistent weakness in consumer spending and limited momentum from broad-based stimulus.
thedocs.worldbank.org pwccn.com
The target downgrade to a 4.5%–5.0% range reflects "elevated external uncertainty" and recognition of slowing demand, suggesting the government views 4.5% as the realistic baseline.
straitstimes.com

At a glance

What

China is aiming for full-year GDP growth between 4.5% and 5.0% in 2026 following a 5.0% expansion in the first quarter.

Who

The National Bureau of Statistics will report the official final figure in January 2027, while policymakers including Premier Li Qiang set the annual targets.

Context

Growth accelerated from 4.5% in late 2025 due to a 14.7% surge in exports and high-tech manufacturing, though consumer spending remains weak.

chinadata.live am.jpmorgan.com

Stakes

Falling below 4.5% could signal structural demand issues and limit policy flexibility, while hitting 5.0% would validate the export-driven recovery strategy.

china-briefing.com am.jpmorgan.com

Note: The official figure will be released in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" for Q4 and the full year 2026 in January 2027, which is the sole resolution source for the market.

Apr 16

China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, accelerating 0.5 percentage points from Q4 2025 and surpassing economist consensus of 4.8%.

chinadata.live CNBC

Apr 16

The government confirmed a full-year 2026 growth target range of 4.5%–5.0%, the first downgrade from a point target in three years amid weak domestic demand.

straitstimes.com youtube.com

Jun 1

The World Bank projected China's economy to expand by 4.4% in 2026, slightly below the government's target floor.

thedocs.worldbank.org

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Q1 2026 growth of 5.0% hit the upper bound of the official target, driven by robust exports and high-tech manufacturing that offset weak domestic consumption.
chinadata.live am.jpmorgan.com
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 real GDP forecast to 4.8% (above the 4.5% consensus) based on sustained export strength and advanced manufacturing gains from the new Five-Year Plan.
goldmansachs.com goldmansachs.com
The government explicitly stated it will "strive for better" than the 4.5%–5.0% target, indicating a willingness to deploy stimulus if growth trends downward.
english.www.gov.cn youtube.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

The World Bank projects only 4.4% growth for 2026, citing persistent weakness in consumer spending and limited momentum from broad-based stimulus.
thedocs.worldbank.org pwccn.com
The target downgrade to a 4.5%–5.0% range reflects "elevated external uncertainty" and recognition of slowing demand, suggesting the government views 4.5% as the realistic baseline.
straitstimes.com