Clacton by-election Winner

$2.5M Vol.Closes Jun 30, 2027

Nigel Farage$928.7K Vol.95%

Count Binface$1.6M Vol.4%

William Clouston$2.2K Vol.<1%

Giles Watling$4.9K Vol.<1%

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul$3.6K Vol.<1%

Matthew Bensilum$4.6K Vol.<1%

Natasha Osben$4.5K Vol.<1%

Tony Mack$4.5K Vol.<1%

Andrew Pemberton$4.9K Vol.<1%

John Stevens$311 Vol.<1%

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

Nigel Farage is campaigning to win re-election as the MP for Clacton in a by-election triggered by his own resignation on July 8, 2026.

Who

The incumbent Reform UK leader faces a record field of 33 opponents, including novelty candidate Count Binface, while the major parties (Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens) are not contesting.

Context

Farage triggered the vote amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial gifts, including a £5m payment from Christopher Harborne and benefits from George Cottrell.

Stakes

A victory secures Farage's continued presence in Parliament and validates his "people versus establishment" strategy, while a loss would end his parliamentary career and damage Reform UK's credibility.

Note: The election date is set for August 13, 2026, meaning the market will likely resolve well before the June 30, 2027 close date.

Jul 8

Nigel Farage formally vacated his Clacton seat after being appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, triggering the by-election in which he is standing again.

pollcheck.co.uk

Jul 17

The by-election date was officially confirmed as Thursday, 13 August 2026, following Reform UK's move of the writ in the Commons.

BBC facebook.com

Jul 18

A record 34 candidates have been confirmed for the Clacton by-election as Nigel Farage seeks to regain his parliamentary seat.

aljazeera.com

Now

Aug 13

The Clacton by-election vote takes place, with results expected on the same day.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Farage secured 46.2% of the vote with a majority of 8,405 in the 2024 general election, establishing a strong base in the constituency.
pollcheck.co.uk
Prediction markets currently assign Farage an implied probability of approximately 95% of winning, with Count Binface as a distant second.
aljazeera.com
Major rival parties have boycotted the contest, leaving Farage as the only serious candidate with established name recognition and party infrastructure against novelty opponents.
Wikipedia

International

Clacton by-election Winner

$2.5M Vol.Closes Jun 30, 2027

Nigel Farage$928.7K Vol.95%

Count Binface$1.6M Vol.4%

William Clouston$2.2K Vol.<1%

Giles Watling$4.9K Vol.<1%

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul$3.6K Vol.<1%

Matthew Bensilum$4.6K Vol.<1%

Natasha Osben$4.5K Vol.<1%

Tony Mack$4.5K Vol.<1%

Andrew Pemberton$4.9K Vol.<1%

John Stevens$311 Vol.<1%

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

Nigel Farage is campaigning to win re-election as the MP for Clacton in a by-election triggered by his own resignation on July 8, 2026.

Who

The incumbent Reform UK leader faces a record field of 33 opponents, including novelty candidate Count Binface, while the major parties (Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens) are not contesting.

Context

Farage triggered the vote amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial gifts, including a £5m payment from Christopher Harborne and benefits from George Cottrell.

Stakes

Note: The election date is set for August 13, 2026, meaning the market will likely resolve well before the June 30, 2027 close date.

Jul 8

Nigel Farage formally vacated his Clacton seat after being appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, triggering the by-election in which he is standing again.

pollcheck.co.uk

Jul 17

The by-election date was officially confirmed as Thursday, 13 August 2026, following Reform UK's move of the writ in the Commons.

BBC facebook.com

Jul 18

A record 34 candidates have been confirmed for the Clacton by-election as Nigel Farage seeks to regain his parliamentary seat.

aljazeera.com

Now

Aug 13

The Clacton by-election vote takes place, with results expected on the same day.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Farage secured 46.2% of the vote with a majority of 8,405 in the 2024 general election, establishing a strong base in the constituency.
pollcheck.co.uk
Prediction markets currently assign Farage an implied probability of approximately 95% of winning, with Count Binface as a distant second.
aljazeera.com
Major rival parties have boycotted the contest, leaving Farage as the only serious candidate with established name recognition and party infrastructure against novelty opponents.
Wikipedia

Bear case

Farage's resignation was triggered by a Commons standards case over undeclared financial gifts, which has damaged his reputation and fueled accusations of wrongdoing.
pollcheck.co.uk aljazeera.com
The decision to trigger the by-election has backfired politically, with critics labeling the contest a "farce" due to the lack of serious opposition from major parties.
independent.co.uk
Farage is facing a record field of 33 opponents, including Laurence Fox (Reclaim) and Piers Corbyn, which could dilute support or energize anti-Farage voters despite the boycott by major parties.
pollcheck.co.uk aljazeera.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.