The Republican Party in Florida's 9th Congressional District is selecting its nominee for the 2026 U.S. House election through a primary on August 18, 2026.
Thomas Chalifoux, a former Osceola School Board Member and 2024 nominee, is leading a field that includes Dan Green, Jorge Martinez, Marcus Carter, Justin Story, Ben Butler, and Steve Rance.
electrepublicans.orgballotready.orgWikipediaChalifoux previously secured the 2024 nomination with nearly 50% of the vote and is now seeking to win the party's endorsement again to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto.
facebook.comBallotpediaThe winner will face Democrat Darren Soto in the general election, with the outcome determining control of a district that has been a battleground for Republican efforts to flip seats.
facebook.comNote: The primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026, and if no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, the market resolves to "Other" [Market description].
Thomas Chalifoux previously won the FL-09 Republican primary in 2024 by defeating John Quiñones and Jose Castillo with 49.6% of the vote, establishing him as the party's nominee for that cycle.
BallotpediaPrediction markets assign Thomas Chalifoux a 43% probability of winning the FL-09 Republican nomination, making him the current frontrunner ahead of Jorge Martinez at 16–20%.
polymarket.comRepublican candidates for Florida's 9th Congressional District including Thomas Chalifoux, Ben Butler, Dan Green, Jorge Martinez, Justin Story, Marcus Carter, and Steve Rance participated in a public forum at VFW Post 3227 in St. Cloud, Florida.
facebook.comThe FL-09 Republican primary election takes place, determining the party's nominee for the 2026 midterm contest.
predictionedge.comballotready.orgAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Thomas Chalifoux is the established incumbent nominee, having won the 2024 FL-09 Republican primary with 49.6% of the vote against two opponents.
BallotpediaPrediction market data shows Chalifoux holds a significant lead with 43% implied probability, nearly double that of his closest rival Jorge Martinez.
polymarket.comChalifoux maintains active visibility in the district, evidenced by his participation in the July 2026 St. Cloud candidate forum attended by multiple Republican contenders.
facebook.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Primary elections often feature voter turnover and new entrants, meaning Chalifoux's 2024 victory does not guarantee support in 2026 without continued campaign momentum.
ballotready.orgThe field includes diverse candidates with notable backgrounds, such as Dan Green, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and Marcus Carter, a businessman and 2024 independent candidate, who could consolidate opposition votes.
WikipediaChalifoux's 49.6% win in 2024 occurred with only two opponents; a larger seven-candidate race in 2026 increases the risk of vote fragmentation that could prevent a majority.
ballotready.orgAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
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