GDP growth in 2026
$53.5K Vol.Closes Jan 29, 2027
2.0–2.5%$6.8K Vol.35%
1.5–2.0%$4.2K Vol.35%
>2.5%$15.6K Vol.14%
<0.5%$7.2K Vol.4%
0.5–1.0%$16.5K Vol.3%
1.0–1.5%$3.2K Vol.1%
The United States is tracking its full-year real GDP growth rate for 2026, which will be definitively reported in the BEA's Q4 Advance Estimate in January 2027.
bea.govThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the official source for the data, while financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, the IMF, and the Atlanta Fed provide ongoing growth forecasts.
bea.govimf.orggoldmansachs.comThe economy opened 2026 with 2.1% growth in Q1, recovering from a weak 0.5% in Q4 2025, but Q2 momentum faces uncertainty with recent model estimates falling to 1.2%.
bea.govatlantafed.orgAchieving 2.0–2.5% annual growth would signal a resilient, moderate expansion avoiding recession, whereas falling below 2.0% could indicate a slowdown in consumer spending and business investment.
ey.comgoldmansachs.comNote: The market resolves to the higher range bracket if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, meaning a 2.0% result resolves to 2.0–2.5% rather than 1.5–2.0%.
The BEA revised Q1 2026 real GDP growth up to 2.1% annualized, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the prior estimate, primarily due to a downward revision in imports.
bea.goveconomictimes.indiatimes.comThe Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth dropped to 1.2%, a significant decline from the 2.5% estimate recorded on June 25.
atlantafed.orgThe Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release the Advance Estimate for Q2 2026 GDP growth, with Trading Economics forecasting a 2.1% annualized rate for the quarter.
tradingeconomics.comRelease of the BEA Preliminary Estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth (scheduled date based on typical BEA release calendar).
tradingeconomics.comRelease of the BEA Final Estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth (scheduled date based on typical BEA release calendar).
tradingeconomics.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Goldman Sachs forecasts US GDP will expand 2.5% in 2026 (Q4 year-over-year), outperforming the consensus estimate of 2.1% due to a massive AI-driven upswing in business investment.
goldmansachs.comThe International Monetary Fund projects GDP growth to accelerate modestly to 2.4% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, citing fading tariff effects and lower oil prices as supportive factors.
imf.orgTrading Economics models and analyst expectations project full-year GDP growth to reach 2.3% by the end of 2026, aligning with the upper end of the 2.0–2.5% range.
worldometers.infotradingeconomics.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q2 2026 dropped sharply to 1.2% as of July 1, suggesting second-half momentum may be weaker than the Q1 2.1% rate.
atlantafed.orgEY strategy insights anticipate a "slow-growth, sticky-inflation environment" with real GDP growth of around 1.9% for both 2026 and 2027, missing the 2.0% threshold.
ey.comThe consensus economist estimate for 2026 growth remains at 2.1%, which is vulnerable to downward revisions if the Q2 slowdown observed in GDPNow persists through the rest of the year.
goldmansachs.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
New signals coming soon
We're building signal widgets tailored to markets like this one. Please check back later.