How high will inflation get in 2026?
$1.3M Vol.Closes Dec 31, 2026
Above 4.5%$128.7K Vol.24%
Above 5%$283.5K Vol.14%
Above 6%$61.3K Vol.6%
Above 10%$52.8K Vol.3%
Above 8%$41.2K Vol.2%
The U.S. annual inflation rate has declined to 3.5% in June 2026 after reaching a three-year high of 4.2% in May.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports that determine whether 2026 inflation exceeds specific thresholds like 4.5%.
Inflation peaked in May due to escalating energy costs but reversed in June with a significant monthly drop in consumer prices, falling below forecasts of 3.8%.
tradingeconomics.comeconomics.td.comIf the 12-month CPI increase for any month in 2026 exceeds 4.5%, the market resolves to "Yes," indicating inflation has returned to higher levels rather than continuing its recent cooling trend.
Note: The market resolves to "Yes" if the CPI exceeds the threshold for *any* month in 2026, so a single spike in late 2026 (e.g., due to an energy shock) could trigger the outcome even if the rest of the year remains low.
Inflation briefly exceeded 4% in May 2026 for the first time in three years, driven primarily by a 3.9% surge in energy prices that increased energy costs by 23.5% over 12 months.
CNBCConsumer prices dropped 0.4% month-on-month in June, the largest one-month decline since April 2020, pushing the 12-month CPI rate down from 4.2% to 3.5%.
economics.td.comThe annual U.S. inflation rate fell to 3.5% in June 2026, marking the first decline in five months after peaking at 4.2% in May.
tradingeconomics.comusinflationcalculator.comThe BLS will release the CPI report covering the 12 months ending in July 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
usinflationcalculator.comThe BLS will release the CPI report covering the 12 months ending in August 2026.
The BLS will release the CPI report covering the 12 months ending in September 2026.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Energy prices remain volatile and recently surged 23.5% over 12 months, creating a risk that a sharp rebound in energy costs could push the annual CPI back above 4.5%.
CNBCInflation reached 4.2% in May 2026, demonstrating that the U.S. economy is still capable of generating annual rates close to the 4.5% threshold within a short timeframe.
tradingeconomics.comCNBCPrevious disinflationary momentum has been inconsistent, with inflation rising for five consecutive months prior to the June decline, suggesting underlying pressures could re-emerge.
tradingeconomics.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The annual inflation rate dropped to 3.5% in June 2026, which is 1.0 percentage point below the 4.5% threshold and marks the first decline after a five-month rise.
tradingeconomics.comusinflationcalculator.comThe June 2026 CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month, a larger decline than consensus expectations, indicating significant immediate downward pressure on prices.
economics.td.comInflation fell below forecasts of 3.8% in June, suggesting that fundamental inflationary pressures remain subdued despite recent energy volatility.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
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