James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?

$16.1K Vol.Closes Aug 18, 2026

Fishback <10%$13.9K Vol.48%

Fishback 15–20%$524.4 Vol.17%

Fishback 10–15%$327.5 Vol.16%

Fishback 20–25%$768.5 Vol.7%

Fishback 30%+$323.8 Vol.6%

Fishback 25–30%$305.1 Vol.6%

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At a glance

What

James Fishback is a Republican candidate competing for the gubernatorial nomination in the Florida primary election scheduled for August 18, 2026.

Who

The race is dominated by front-runner Congressman Byron Donalds, with Fishback competing against Jay Collins, Paul Renner, and others for the remaining share of the vote.

Context

Fishback has built significant support among Generation Z and young Republican men, polling at 32% with voters aged 18–32 in a University of North Florida study, while struggling to gain traction with older voters.

wusf.org

Stakes

Securing less than 10% of the vote would indicate a failed campaign for Fishback, reinforcing Donalds' dominance and limiting Fishback's influence in Florida's future Republican politics.

Note: While recent averages show Fishback above 10%, polling volatility remains high with 39% of voters still undecided in the June survey, meaning a final result below 10% is still structurally possible if undecideds do not consolidate behind him.

May 1

A May 2026 Change Research poll recorded Fishback's vote share at 9%, while a Patriot Polling poll from January 2026 showed him at 23–30% depending on the respondent filter.

octagonai.co x.com

Jul 19

The latest polling average as of July 19, 2026, places James Fishback at 15.5% support in the Florida Republican Governor primary, trailing Byron Donalds by 28 points.

fiftyplusone.news

[2026-06-] An Emerson College Polling survey released in late June 2026 found Fishback at 4% support, tying with Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins behind Donalds at 46%.

emersoncollegepolling.com x.com

Now

Aug 18

The 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary election takes place, determining the final vote share for all candidates.

x.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Recent July 2026 polling averages show Fishback at 15.5%, well above the 10% threshold, suggesting a strong likelihood of exceeding the <10% bracket.
fiftyplusone.news
Fishback consistently demonstrates upward momentum in credible polling, rising from 1% in late 2025 to 8–9% in mid-2026, with a 60% probability assessed for crossing the 10% mark.
futuresearch.ai
He holds a 68% likelihood of securing second place in the primary according to prediction market analysis, indicating a competitive position behind Donalds.
octagonai.co

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

An Emerson College Polling survey from June 2026 placed Fishback at only 4%, matching Jay Collins and far behind Donalds, showing vulnerability to lower turnout or undecided voters shifting away.
emersoncollegepolling.com x.com
Fishback consistently trails in fundraising compared to top contenders, which may limit his ability to reach undecided voters before the August election.
octagonai.co

Sentiment

Last 30 days

Fishback

Emotions

Last 30 days

Fishback

Sentiment over time

Last 30 days

Fishback

Volume over time

Last 30 days

Fishback

Word cloud

Last 30 days

Fishback