And 2 more markets on this event.
View on PolymarketThe Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the 12-month annual Consumer Price Index change ending July 2026 on August 12, 2026.
bls.govThe data is compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and reflects price changes for goods and services across the U.S. economy for urban consumers.
bls.govAnnual inflation fell to 3.5% in June 2026 after reaching 4.2% in May, driven by a sharp decline in energy prices while core inflation (excluding food and energy) eased to 2.6%.
bls.govhubbardobrieneconomics.comA reading of 3.4% would indicate continued cooling of inflation toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, potentially reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts or hindling further hikes.
CNBCNote: The market resolves to the specific percentage reported in the BLS July 2026 CPI news release, which may include a rounding difference (e.g., 3.46% reported in some analyses could round to 3.5% officially).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual inflation rate for the 12 months ending June 2026 was 3.5%, down from 4.2% in May and below forecasts of 3.8%.
bls.govtradingeconomics.comEconomists from Moody's and Wells Fargo stated that the decline suggests inflation has peaked and should continue moderating over the coming year, reducing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate increases.
CNBCAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Energy prices have fallen significantly, with energy commodity prices dropping almost 10% in June, creating downward momentum that could push the July annual rate from 3.5% to 3.4%.
econsnapshot.comCore inflation declined to 2.6% year-over-year in June, supporting a view of sustained cooling momentum that may extend into the July 12-month figure.
polymarket.comThe monthly CPI decreased 0.4% in June, the largest drop since April 2020, suggesting a structural shift that could lower the trailing annual average by 0.1% to hit 3.4%.
tradingeconomics.comCNBCAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The June annual inflation rate of 3.5% remains above the 3.4% target, and shelter costs (up 3.3% year-over-year) may prevent a further decline in the July reading.
hubbardobrieneconomics.comtradingeconomics.comCore inflation excluding food and energy only dropped 0.20% monthly with a 2.6% year-over-year increase, indicating sticky underlying price pressures that could keep the annual rate at 3.5%.
econsnapshot.comEconomists note that while the peak is passed, the pace of moderation may be insufficient to drop the 12-month figure from 3.5% to 3.4% without a continued sharp decline in energy or shelter.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.