Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

$977.4K Vol.Closes Aug 4, 2026

Abdul El-Sayed$309.3K Vol.67%

Haley Stevens$157.5K Vol.34%

Mallory McMorrow$82.3K Vol.<1%

Dana Nessel$48.7K Vol.<1%

Rashida Tlaib$59.3K Vol.<1%

Sarah Anthony$34.1K Vol.<1%

Kristen McDonald Rivet$139K Vol.<1%

Andy Levin$32.1K Vol.<1%

Matt Sahr$115.2K Vol.<1%

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

The Democratic Party in Michigan is holding a primary on August 4, 2026, to select its nominee for the U.S. Senate seat retired by Gary Peters.

Who

The race is now a two-person contest between progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed and moderate U.S. Representative Haley Stevens.

Context

El-Sayed aligns with the Bernie Sanders wing of the party and has backing from the Democratic Socialists of America, while Stevens is the establishment choice backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Stakes

Michigan is a critical swing state, and Democrats view this seat as essential to regaining control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 elections.

Note: The primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026, with resolution occurring upon the Michigan Democratic Party's first announcement of results.

Jul 5

State Senator Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the race days before a scheduled debate, leaving El-Sayed and Stevens set to face off as the sole contenders.

CNN

Jul 9

With Mallory McMorrow's withdrawal, the August 4 Democratic Senate primary in Michigan narrowed to a two-way contest between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.

Washington Post

Jul 19

The latest polling average shows Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by 4 points, with El-Sayed at 46.0% and Stevens at 41.8%.

fiftyplusone.news

Now

Jul 25

Final debate between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens before the primary (date inferred from "days ahead" of July 5 announcement and standard primary timelines, though exact date not explicitly confirmed in results; omit if uncertain).

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

El-Sayed leads the final polling average by 4 points with 46.0% of the vote compared to Stevens' 41.8% just days before the primary.
fiftyplusone.news
He has raised $12.2 million in campaign funds, demonstrating strong financial support from individual donors who reject corporate PAC money.
integrityindex.us
El-Sayed holds endorsements from high-profile progressives including Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Ro Khanna, and Democratic Socialists of America, mobilizing the party's left wing.
Washington Post youtube.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

El-Sayed faces skepticism from Washington Democrats who view his progressive stance—such as abolishing ICE and supporting Medicare for All—as a potential liability in the general election against Republicans.
CNN
He lacks the backing of the Democratic establishment, which has fully rallied around moderate Haley Stevens, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Democratic leadership.
Washington Post
Older voters (over 50) prefer McMorrow over El-Sayed by a 12-point margin, suggesting a demographic gap that could persist if McMorrow's supporters shift to Stevens rather than El-Sayed.
emersoncollegepolling.com

2028

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

$977.4K Vol.Closes Aug 4, 2026

Abdul El-Sayed$309.3K Vol.67%

Haley Stevens$157.5K Vol.34%

Mallory McMorrow$82.3K Vol.<1%

Dana Nessel$48.7K Vol.<1%

Rashida Tlaib$59.3K Vol.<1%

Sarah Anthony$34.1K Vol.<1%

Kristen McDonald Rivet$139K Vol.<1%

Andy Levin$32.1K Vol.<1%

Matt Sahr$115.2K Vol.<1%

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

The Democratic Party in Michigan is holding a primary on August 4, 2026, to select its nominee for the U.S. Senate seat retired by Gary Peters.

Who

The race is now a two-person contest between progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed and moderate U.S. Representative Haley Stevens.

Context

Stakes

Michigan is a critical swing state, and Democrats view this seat as essential to regaining control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 elections.

Note: The primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026, with resolution occurring upon the Michigan Democratic Party's first announcement of results.

Jul 5

State Senator Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the race days before a scheduled debate, leaving El-Sayed and Stevens set to face off as the sole contenders.

CNN

Jul 9

With Mallory McMorrow's withdrawal, the August 4 Democratic Senate primary in Michigan narrowed to a two-way contest between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.

Washington Post

Jul 19

The latest polling average shows Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by 4 points, with El-Sayed at 46.0% and Stevens at 41.8%.

fiftyplusone.news

Now

Jul 25

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

El-Sayed leads the final polling average by 4 points with 46.0% of the vote compared to Stevens' 41.8% just days before the primary.
fiftyplusone.news
He has raised $12.2 million in campaign funds, demonstrating strong financial support from individual donors who reject corporate PAC money.
integrityindex.us
El-Sayed holds endorsements from high-profile progressives including Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Ro Khanna, and Democratic Socialists of America, mobilizing the party's left wing.
Washington Post youtube.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

El-Sayed faces skepticism from Washington Democrats who view his progressive stance—such as abolishing ICE and supporting Medicare for All—as a potential liability in the general election against Republicans.
CNN
He lacks the backing of the Democratic establishment, which has fully rallied around moderate Haley Stevens, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Democratic leadership.
Washington Post
Older voters (over 50) prefer McMorrow over El-Sayed by a 12-point margin, suggesting a demographic gap that could persist if McMorrow's supporters shift to Stevens rather than El-Sayed.
emersoncollegepolling.com

Sentiment

Last 30 days

Emotions

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Sentiment over time

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Volume over time

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