NY-22 House Election Winner
$9.1K Vol.Closes Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party$6K Vol.92%
Republican Party$3.1K Vol.8%
The 2026 midterm election in New York's 22nd congressional district will determine whether Democrat John Mannion or Republican Kailee Buller wins the House seat.
Incumbent Democrat John Mannion faces Republican challenger Kailee Buller in Central New York, a region including Syracuse and Utica.
The district is geographically centered in the Mohawk Valley and includes all of Onondaga and Madison counties, with a presidential-level rating of D+4.
The outcome will decide if a Democratic incumbent retains a seat in a district that Donald Trump won by 7.5% in 2024, reflecting the impact of national political trends on local representation.
Note: While forecasts favor the Democrat, the district's status as a swing area with a 2024 Republican presidential win means the outcome remains sensitive to the national midterm environment.
New York held state primary elections, finalizing the candidate lineup for the November 2026 general election.
Washington PostDemocrat John Mannion won the NY-22 seat with 54.6% of the vote, establishing himself as the incumbent seeking a second term.
wikiwand.comRepublican Kailee Buller, former Chief of Staff at the US Department of Agriculture, was confirmed as the GOP candidate opposing Mannion.
pollsmax.comOctober 2026 final campaign pushes and voter mobilization efforts before the November election.
General election voting day for the U.S. House of Representatives in NY-22.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
John Mannion holds a significant incumbent advantage and secured 54.6% of the vote in 2024 despite Trump winning the district by 7.5%.
wikiwand.comProprietary forecasts rate the 2026 election as "Likely D" with a projected margin of D+14.9, projecting 57.5% for the Democrat.
pollsmax.comThe district's presidential-level rating of D+4 suggests it leans Democratic, and analysts note Manniro (in a 2024 comparison) likely survives only in environments up to D+5, implying Mannion's base is stronger in a D+4 context.
uspollingdata.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Donald Trump won NY-22 by 7.5% in 2024, indicating the district's underlying electorate favors Republicans in presidential years.
pollsmax.comThe district is classified as a "Toss-Up" by some trackers due to its R+1.8 to R+3 partisan lean in certain models, creating vulnerability for the incumbent.
uspollingdata.comIn wave conditions where the environment shifts to D+7 or stronger, the district is projected to flip, suggesting Mannion could lose if Democratic turnout surges nationally.
uspollingdata.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.