Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

$676.6M Vol.Closes Nov 7, 2028

J.D. Vance$14.5M Vol.40%

Marco Rubio$9.9M Vol.27%

Tucker Carlson$11.8M Vol.3%

Ron DeSantis$15M Vol.2%

Donald Trump$9.1M Vol.1%

Donald Trump Jr.$9.4M Vol.1%

Glenn Youngkin$8.3M Vol.1%

Vivek Ramaswamy$15.9M Vol.1%

Ivanka Trump$8.1M Vol.1%

Ted Cruz$18.6M Vol.1%

And 25 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

Vice President J.D. Vance is the leading contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination but has not yet formally declared a campaign.

Who

Vance, the sitting Vice President and former Ohio senator, faces potential rivals including Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, and Donald Trump Jr.

Context

Donald Trump is ineligible to run again in 2028, creating an open field for his successor, with Trump having declined to endorse a specific candidate so far.

Wikipedia Fox News

Stakes

Securing the nomination would position Vance as the party's standard-bearer to challenge for the presidency, leveraging his status as Trump's chosen heir apparent.

irishtimes.com

Note: Vance has not officially filed a 2028 campaign as of June 2026, and his decision may be influenced by family considerations regarding his fourth child.

May 5

Vice President Vance visited Iowa, receiving a warm welcome from Republicans and caucus participants who expressed curiosity about his 2028 prospects.

Politico

May 25

At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in March 2026, Vance remained the top choice among conservative voters to be the 2028 Republican nominee.

irishtimes.com

Jun 14

JD Vance indicated he will discuss a potential 2028 presidential run with his wife after the 2026 midterm elections, possibly delaying the decision due to the expected arrival of his fourth child in July.

The Guardian

Now

Nov 3

The 2026 United States midterm elections, which Vance chairs fundraising efforts for via the RNC and whose outcomes will further define his standing within the party.

NBC News

Feb 25, 2027

The 2027 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a key early arena where candidates typically gauge conservative support and announce candidacy intentions.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Vance holds a commanding lead in GOP primary polls, with Emerson College polling showing him at 46% support versus 12% for Marco Rubio and 9% for Ron DeSantis.
The Hill
A separate Big Data Poll confirms Vance's dominance with 35.4% support, more than double Marco Rubio's 16.5%, solidifying his status as the clear frontrunner.
newsweek.com
President Donald Trump has publicly stated that Vance would be "probably favored" to secure the 2028 Republican nomination if he decides to run.
Fox News

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

A November 2025 poll indicates Vance's lead has significantly narrowed, with his margin over Donald Trump Jr. dropping to just ten points (34% to 24%).
Yahoo News
Vance has repeatedly declined to formally commit to a 2028 campaign, stating his focus remains on serving in the current administration rather than planning his next move.
newsweek.com
Vance's position as a sitting Vice President and RNC finance chair may limit his ability to campaign independently, and some analysts suggest Marco Rubio could be the more probable nominee despite current betting trends.
federalnewsnetwork.com

2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

$676.6M Vol.Closes Nov 7, 2028

J.D. Vance$14.5M Vol.40%

Marco Rubio$9.9M Vol.27%

Tucker Carlson$11.8M Vol.3%

Ron DeSantis$15M Vol.2%

Donald Trump$9.1M Vol.1%

Donald Trump Jr.$9.4M Vol.1%

Glenn Youngkin$8.3M Vol.1%

Vivek Ramaswamy$15.9M Vol.1%

Ivanka Trump$8.1M Vol.1%

Ted Cruz$18.6M Vol.1%

And 25 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

Vice President J.D. Vance is the leading contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination but has not yet formally declared a campaign.

Who

Vance, the sitting Vice President and former Ohio senator, faces potential rivals including Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, and Donald Trump Jr.

Context

Donald Trump is ineligible to run again in 2028, creating an open field for his successor, with Trump having declined to endorse a specific candidate so far.

Wikipedia Fox News

Stakes

Securing the nomination would position Vance as the party's standard-bearer to challenge for the presidency, leveraging his status as Trump's chosen heir apparent.

irishtimes.com

Note: Vance has not officially filed a 2028 campaign as of June 2026, and his decision may be influenced by family considerations regarding his fourth child.

May 5

Vice President Vance visited Iowa, receiving a warm welcome from Republicans and caucus participants who expressed curiosity about his 2028 prospects.

Politico

May 25

At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in March 2026, Vance remained the top choice among conservative voters to be the 2028 Republican nominee.

irishtimes.com

Jun 14

The Guardian

Now

Nov 3

The 2026 United States midterm elections, which Vance chairs fundraising efforts for via the RNC and whose outcomes will further define his standing within the party.

NBC News

Feb 25, 2027

The 2027 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a key early arena where candidates typically gauge conservative support and announce candidacy intentions.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Vance holds a commanding lead in GOP primary polls, with Emerson College polling showing him at 46% support versus 12% for Marco Rubio and 9% for Ron DeSantis.
The Hill
A separate Big Data Poll confirms Vance's dominance with 35.4% support, more than double Marco Rubio's 16.5%, solidifying his status as the clear frontrunner.
newsweek.com
President Donald Trump has publicly stated that Vance would be "probably favored" to secure the 2028 Republican nomination if he decides to run.
Fox News

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

A November 2025 poll indicates Vance's lead has significantly narrowed, with his margin over Donald Trump Jr. dropping to just ten points (34% to 24%).
Yahoo News
Vance has repeatedly declined to formally commit to a 2028 campaign, stating his focus remains on serving in the current administration rather than planning his next move.
newsweek.com
Vance's position as a sitting Vice President and RNC finance chair may limit his ability to campaign independently, and some analysts suggest Marco Rubio could be the more probable nominee despite current betting trends.
federalnewsnetwork.com

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