South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

$189.4K Vol.Closes Aug 11, 2026

Darline Graham Nordone$40.4K Vol.65%

Ralph Norman$33.6K Vol.22%

Russell Fry$75.7K Vol.14%

Mark Lynch$8.8K Vol.3%

Nancy Mace$4.9K Vol.1%

Pamela Evette$15.8K Vol.1%

Joe Wilson$1.9K Vol.<1%

Paul Dans$1.2K Vol.<1%

William Timmons$976 Vol.<1%

Sheri Biggs$1.2K Vol.<1%

And 4 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

South Carolina is holding a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to select the GOP nominee for the November general election to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Who

Darline Graham Nordone, the late senator's sister and interim appointee, is a potential candidate backed by President Trump, facing rivals like front-runner Russell Fry and Rep. Ralph Norman.

Context

Nordone was appointed by Governor Henry McMaster on July 13 to serve the remainder of her brother's term through January 2027 but has not yet officially confirmed her candidacy for the special primary.

Stakes

Winning the special primary secures the Republican nomination for a seat considered "Solid R," determining who will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November and hold the seat starting in January 2027.

Note: Nordone is currently serving as the interim senator until January 3, 2027, and must officially file between July 21 and July 28 to be eligible for the August 11 primary.

Jul 14

Election officials are finalizing voter eligibility rules for the August 11 special primary set to fill the seat of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.

foxcarolina.com

Jul 17

President Donald Trump publicly urged Darline Graham Nordone to run in the August 11 special Republican primary and pledged his "complete and total endorsement" if she enters the race.

CNN

Jul 17

The South Carolina Election Commission confirmed that candidates already on the ballot for other offices can simultaneously run for the U.S. Senate in the special primary.

scdailygazette.com

Now

Jul 21

The filing period for the GOP special primary opens at 12:00 p.m. EDT, allowing candidates to officially register.

CNN fitsnews.com

Jul 28

The filing period for the GOP special primary closes at 12:00 p.m. EDT, determining the final list of candidates.

CNN fitsnews.com

Aug 11

The special Republican primary election is held to select the nominee, with a potential runoff on August 25 if no candidate receives a majority.

foxcarolina.com fitsnews.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

President Trump has issued a direct public appeal and promised his "complete and total endorsement" for Nordone, providing her with significant high-level political backing.
CNN
Nordone possesses high name recognition as the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham and has served in public positions, including as a commissioner for the South Carolina Commission for the Blind.
CNN
Market data shows her support gaining traction, with betting odds rising from approximately 4% to 8% following Trump's endorsement announcement.
federalnewsnetwork.com polymarket.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Nordone has never held elected office, whereas her primary rivals include experienced incumbents like front-runner Russell Fry and Rep. Ralph Norman.
CNN federalnewsnetwork.com
Credible election tracking sources explicitly list her as "Not running in the Special Primary," suggesting she may opt to serve only the interim term through January.
thegreenpapers.com
Despite Trump's endorsement, she remains a distant outsider in the betting markets with only 8% support compared to Russell Fry's 61% lead, indicating low voter confidence in her candidacy.

Primaries

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

$189.4K Vol.Closes Aug 11, 2026

Darline Graham Nordone$40.4K Vol.65%

Ralph Norman$33.6K Vol.22%

Russell Fry$75.7K Vol.14%

Mark Lynch$8.8K Vol.3%

Nancy Mace$4.9K Vol.1%

Pamela Evette$15.8K Vol.1%

Joe Wilson$1.9K Vol.<1%

Paul Dans$1.2K Vol.<1%

William Timmons$976 Vol.<1%

Sheri Biggs$1.2K Vol.<1%

And 4 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

Sentiment

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Emotions

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Sentiment over time

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Volume over time

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