What will the Ethereum Implied Volatility Index hit by July 31?

$4.6K Vol.Closes Aug 1, 2026

↓ 50$291.1 Vol.60%

↑ 65$144 Vol.37%

↑ 70$967 Vol.17%

↑ 80$599.5 Vol.8%

↓ 45$247 Vol.7%

↑ 90$203.9 Vol.2%

↓ 40$170 Vol.2%

↑ 100$263.1 Vol.2%

↓ 35$1.7K Vol.1%

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At a glance

What

The Ethereum Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) is currently fluctuating near 67.5% as traders price in short-term market uncertainty ahead of July 31.

Who

Deribit options traders, institutional investors via ETH ETFs, and on-chain data providers like Kaiko and Glassnode are driving the volatility pricing.

Context

Implied volatility spiked in mid-July to 62% on near-term contracts due to expectations of spot ETF activity, before settling slightly higher at 67.45% in the current session.

studio.glassnode.com binance.com

Stakes

If the index stays above 50%, it indicates elevated expectations for price swings; dropping below 50% would signal a return to the calm trading environment seen in early July.

blockscholes.com

Note: The Binance volatility index currently displays 0.00, which likely reflects a data feed issue or lack of active options for that specific ticker, so the Glassnode DVOL reading of 67.45 is the more reliable current benchmark.

Jul 1

ETH implied volatility settled below 50% in early July after falling from 70% to the 45–50% range, marking a significant decline from 2025 levels.

blockscholes.com

Jul 15

Ethereum's near-term implied volatility on Deribit options rose sharply to 62%, surpassing longer-dated contracts as traders hedged against potential spot ETF announcements.

binance.com

Jul 19

The live Ethereum Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) is currently trading at 67.45, with a 24-hour high of 67.58 and low of 67.43.

studio.glassnode.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Near-term options expiring July 19 and 26 show inverted volatility curves with the July 19 contract at 62%, suggesting traders expect a significant market event before July 31.
binance.com
Implied volatility (59–67%) remains below realized volatility (65.6%), indicating options are historically cheap relative to Ethereum's actual price movements, which often precedes a volatility spike.
youtube.com
Exchange inflows in mid-July warned of an impending volatility expansion, with analysts noting that direction matters less than the inevitable increase in price movement magnitude.
livevolatile.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

ETH's 30-day ATM implied volatility spent most of H1 2026 trading lower, settling below 50% in early July, demonstrating a sustained downward trend in volatility expectations.
blockscholes.com
The current DVOL of 67.45 is only moderately elevated compared to the 65–70% levels that prevailed through much of 2025, suggesting the market may not reach extreme highs like 70, 80, or 90 by July 31.
studio.glassnode.com blockscholes.com

At a glance

What

The Ethereum Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) is currently fluctuating near 67.5% as traders price in short-term market uncertainty ahead of July 31.

Who

Deribit options traders, institutional investors via ETH ETFs, and on-chain data providers like Kaiko and Glassnode are driving the volatility pricing.

Context

Implied volatility spiked in mid-July to 62% on near-term contracts due to expectations of spot ETF activity, before settling slightly higher at 67.45% in the current session.

studio.glassnode.com binance.com

Stakes

If the index stays above 50%, it indicates elevated expectations for price swings; dropping below 50% would signal a return to the calm trading environment seen in early July.

blockscholes.com

Jul 1

ETH implied volatility settled below 50% in early July after falling from 70% to the 45–50% range, marking a significant decline from 2025 levels.

blockscholes.com

Jul 15

Ethereum's near-term implied volatility on Deribit options rose sharply to 62%, surpassing longer-dated contracts as traders hedged against potential spot ETF announcements.

binance.com

Jul 19

The live Ethereum Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) is currently trading at 67.45, with a 24-hour high of 67.58 and low of 67.43.

studio.glassnode.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Near-term options expiring July 19 and 26 show inverted volatility curves with the July 19 contract at 62%, suggesting traders expect a significant market event before July 31.
binance.com
Implied volatility (59–67%) remains below realized volatility (65.6%), indicating options are historically cheap relative to Ethereum's actual price movements, which often precedes a volatility spike.
youtube.com
Exchange inflows in mid-July warned of an impending volatility expansion, with analysts noting that direction matters less than the inevitable increase in price movement magnitude.
livevolatile.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

ETH's 30-day ATM implied volatility spent most of H1 2026 trading lower, settling below 50% in early July, demonstrating a sustained downward trend in volatility expectations.
blockscholes.com
The current DVOL of 67.45 is only moderately elevated compared to the 65–70% levels that prevailed through much of 2025, suggesting the market may not reach extreme highs like 70, 80, or 90 by July 31.
studio.glassnode.com blockscholes.com

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