What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

$6.2K Vol.Closes Sep 30, 2026

<$1.176M$1.1K Vol.47%

$1.198M - $1.220M$529.8 Vol.29%

$1.176M - $1.198M$1.1K Vol.26%

$1.220M - $1.242M$718.6 Vol.18%

$1.242M - $1.264M$1.8K Vol.12%

$1.284M+$475 Vol.4%

$1.264M - $1.284M$427.3 Vol.2%

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

The median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area is currently trending significantly above $1.176 million due to strong price appreciation driven by the AI sector.

Who

The market includes all property types in the SF Metro area, with single-family homes reaching record highs of $2.15 million and the broader metro median hitting $1.7 million.

Context

After a cool period in 2022, the SF housing market has entered a new upcycle with April 2026 showing a 10%+ year-over-year surge to $1.7 million for the metro area.

New York Times

Stakes

A value below $1.176 million would require a sharp reversal of the current AI-driven price surge, contradicting the nearly 21% year-over-year growth seen in single-family home median prices.

sfchronicle.com reddit.com

Note: The market resolves to the higher range bracket if the value falls exactly between two brackets, meaning a value of exactly $1.176M would resolve to the $1.176M - $1.198M bracket rather than <$1.176M.

Mar 1

The median home value in San Francisco, California was $1,250,000, which is above the national median of $400,000.

amortio.com

May 1

The median sale price for single-family homes in San Francisco reached $2.15 million last month, clearing the previous high of $2.05 million set in 2022.

sfchronicle.com

May 29

The median home sale price in the San Francisco metropolitan area surged over 10 percent in April compared to the previous year, reaching $1.7 million due to an AI boom upending the market.

New York Times

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The median home value in San Francisco was $1,250,000 as of March 2026, which is already above the $1,176M threshold by $74,000.
amortio.com
The median sale price for the San Francisco metropolitan area reached $1.7 million in April 2026, representing a more than 10 percent increase from the prior year.
New York Times
Single-family home median prices in San Francisco surged 21% year-over-year in April to reach $2.1 million, indicating strong upward momentum across property types.
sfchronicle.com reddit.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

The median listing price for San Francisco is reported at $1.2 million, which is only slightly above the $1.176M threshold, suggesting limited buffer if the market cools.
realtor.com
While sale prices have surged, the typical home value in the broader Bay Area was $1,170,000 in 2025, which is just below the $1.176M threshold, indicating the metro average could be sensitive to included non-SF counties.
vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov
The market experienced a significantly cooler phase ending the 10-year upcycle in 2022, and historical volatility suggests rapid shifts could occur if the AI boom slows before September.
carolreen.com

Sentiment

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Sentiment over time

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Volume over time

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