Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

$28.3M Vol.Closes Dec 31, 2026

Gadi Eizenkot$1.4M Vol.49%

Benjamin Netanyahu$2.5M Vol.35%

Naftali Bennett$2.8M Vol.8%

Avigdor Lieberman$2M Vol.2%

Itamar Ben Gvir$1.3M Vol.1%

Gideon Sa’ar$2M Vol.<1%

Yoaz Hendel$1.5M Vol.<1%

Yair Lapid$1.3M Vol.<1%

Benny Gantz$1.9M Vol.<1%

Yariv Levin$1M Vol.<1%

And 8 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

Israel is holding legislative elections on October 27, 2026, to determine the next Prime Minister following months of rising support for former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Who

The primary contest is between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud and challenger Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the newly formed Yashar party.

Context

Eisenkot, a Mizrahi general of Moroccan descent who served as IDF Chief of Staff from 2015–2019, exited the National Unity party in 2025 to build a security-focused centrist alternative.

Stakes

If elected, Eisenkot would become Israel's first Mizrahi Prime Minister and potentially end Netanyahu's long tenure, shifting the government toward a centrist, security-oriented coalition.

Note: Eisenkot's candidacy depends entirely on his party's electoral performance; even with 21 seats, he must secure coalition partners to reach the 61-seat threshold required for Prime Minister appointment.

Jul 2, 2025

Eisenkot formally resigned from the Knesset and left Benny Gantz's National Unity party in July 2025 to launch his independent centrist Yashar party, positioning himself for the October 27, 2026 election.

Wikipedia jewishvirtuallibrary.org

Jun 29

A Channel 12 poll projects Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party to win 21 Knesset seats, trailing only Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party at 23 seats and placing ahead of the Bennett-Lapid bloc at 18.

CNN

Jun 29

In the same poll, 38% of respondents named Eisenkot as better suited to serve as Prime Minister compared to 36% for Netanyahu, marking him as the main political threat to the country's longest-serving leader.

CNN

Now

Oct 27

Israel's scheduled legislative election where voters will cast ballots to form the new Knesset and determine the next Prime Minister.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Eisenkot's Yashar party is projected to win 21 seats in the next Knesset, making it the second-largest party and trailing Likud by only two seats in the latest Channel 12 poll.
CNN
Public sentiment favors Eisenkot as the preferred Prime Minister candidate, with 38% of respondents selecting him over Netanyahu's 36% in a major June 2026 poll.
CNN
His background as a former IDF Chief of Staff and member of the 2023–2024 war cabinet provides him with unique security credibility that appeals to voters concerned about national defense.
Wikipedia britannica.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Eisenkot resigned from the Knesset in July 2025 and has no current seat in parliament, requiring his new party to win enough seats to enter government before he can be appointed Prime Minister.
Wikipedia jewishvirtuallibrary.org
His Yashar party is still newly formed (founded in September 2025) and lacks the established organizational infrastructure and donor networks of Likud or National Unity.
blogs.timesofisrael.com Wikipedia

International

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

$28.3M Vol.Closes Dec 31, 2026

Gadi Eizenkot$1.4M Vol.49%

Benjamin Netanyahu$2.5M Vol.35%

Naftali Bennett$2.8M Vol.8%

Avigdor Lieberman$2M Vol.2%

Itamar Ben Gvir$1.3M Vol.1%

Gideon Sa’ar$2M Vol.<1%

Yoaz Hendel$1.5M Vol.<1%

Yair Lapid$1.3M Vol.<1%

Benny Gantz$1.9M Vol.<1%

Yariv Levin$1M Vol.<1%

And 8 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

Israel is holding legislative elections on October 27, 2026, to determine the next Prime Minister following months of rising support for former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Who

The primary contest is between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud and challenger Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the newly formed Yashar party.

Context

Eisenkot, a Mizrahi general of Moroccan descent who served as IDF Chief of Staff from 2015–2019, exited the National Unity party in 2025 to build a security-focused centrist alternative.

Stakes

If elected, Eisenkot would become Israel's first Mizrahi Prime Minister and potentially end Netanyahu's long tenure, shifting the government toward a centrist, security-oriented coalition.

Jul 2, 2025

Wikipedia jewishvirtuallibrary.org

Jun 29

A Channel 12 poll projects Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party to win 21 Knesset seats, trailing only Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party at 23 seats and placing ahead of the Bennett-Lapid bloc at 18.

CNN

Jun 29

CNN

Now

Oct 27

Israel's scheduled legislative election where voters will cast ballots to form the new Knesset and determine the next Prime Minister.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Eisenkot's Yashar party is projected to win 21 seats in the next Knesset, making it the second-largest party and trailing Likud by only two seats in the latest Channel 12 poll.
CNN
Public sentiment favors Eisenkot as the preferred Prime Minister candidate, with 38% of respondents selecting him over Netanyahu's 36% in a major June 2026 poll.
CNN
His background as a former IDF Chief of Staff and member of the 2023–2024 war cabinet provides him with unique security credibility that appeals to voters concerned about national defense.
Wikipedia britannica.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Eisenkot resigned from the Knesset in July 2025 and has no current seat in parliament, requiring his new party to win enough seats to enter government before he can be appointed Prime Minister.
Wikipedia jewishvirtuallibrary.org
His Yashar party is still newly formed (founded in September 2025) and lacks the established organizational infrastructure and donor networks of Likud or National Unity.
blogs.timesofisrael.com Wikipedia

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