Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by July 31?

$28.6K Vol.Closes Aug 1, 2026

↓$800B$10.4K Vol.16%

↑$900B$2K Vol.12%

↑$1.1T$1.2K Vol.2%

↑$1.0T$2.4K Vol.2%

↑$1.25T$1.6K Vol.2%

↓$725B$1.6K Vol.2%

↑$950B$3.3K Vol.2%

↑$1.5T$3.2K Vol.<1%

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At a glance

What

OpenAI's private market valuation is currently estimated between $821 billion and $855 billion, creating a question of whether it will stay below $800 billion by July 31, 2026.

Who

The valuation is tracked by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) for OpenAI, competing against rivals like Anthropic and SpaceX in the private sector.

Context

Recent secondary market data from July 2026 shows OpenAI's share price surge to over $717, pushing its total implied valuation well above $800 billion.

Stakes

If the valuation remains above $800 billion, the market resolves to "No" for the "↓$800B" outcome, confirming OpenAI's status as a top-tier private company exceeding that threshold.

Note: The "↓$800B" outcome resolves to "Yes" only if OpenAI's valuation *never* reaches $800 billion between market creation and July 31; since it has already exceeded this amount, this outcome is effectively impossible unless the valuation is retroactively corrected to a lower figure by NPM.

Mar 31

OpenAI completed a $40 billion funding round, which lifted its private valuation to $300 billion at that time, though secondary markets have since driven the value significantly higher.

CNBC

Jun 8

OpenAI confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC, but remains a private company with no public stock ticker as of July 2026.

ipo.club

Jul 2

Nasdaq Private Market estimated OpenAI's price per share at $717.77, reflecting a 293.30% increase from prior levels.

nasdaqprivatemarket.com

Now

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

Recent NPM data from early July 2026 explicitly estimates OpenAI's valuation at approximately $852 billion, firmly above the $800 billion threshold.
stockanalysis.com premieralts.com
As of May 2026, third-party tracking placed OpenAI at roughly $822 billion, and the subsequent 293% surge in share price by July suggests a continued upward trend rather than a decline.
nasdaqprivatemarket.com wooleyrhinoresearch.com
OpenAI completed a historic $40 billion funding round in March 2026 and is actively preparing for an IPO with a filed S-1, indicating strong investor confidence and sustained capital inflow.
ipo.club CNBC

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

No factual evidence in the search results indicates a valuation drop below $800 billion; all current and recent data points (May, June, July) place the valuation between $821 billion and $855 billion.
stockanalysis.com wooleyrhinoresearch.com polymarket.com
Anthropic's valuation has surged to $936 billion, creating a competitive pressure that typically drives up valuations for top AI firms like OpenAI rather than suppressing them below prior highs.
wooleyrhinoresearch.com

Sentiment

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Sentiment over time

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Volume over time

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