Overview
How accurate forecasts are made, how forecasting skill is measured, and how it improves.
A market price is one way to forecast the future. Human judgment is another, and both rely on the same underlying skills. These guides explain those skills: why crowds can forecast well, what sets the best individual forecasters apart, and how forecasting accuracy is measured and improved.
Guides
Wisdom of Crowds
Why aggregated judgments can beat experts, and the conditions that accuracy depends on.
Superforecasting
What the Good Judgment Project found about the people who forecast best.
Calibration
What it means for forecasts to match reality, and how the skill is measured and trained.
Brier Score
The standard accuracy score for probability forecasts, and what counts as a good one.
Base Rates
Why sound estimates start from the frequency of comparable past cases.