Fed decision in Jul 2026?
On Jul 29, 2026
$24.7M Vol.Closes Jul 29, 2026
Fed maintains rate$8.6M Vol.94%
Hike 25bps$7.6M Vol.6%
Cut >25bps$1.7M Vol.1%
Cut 25bps$4.3M Vol.1%
Hike >25bps$2.5M Vol.1%
On Jul 29, 2026
The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to change interest rates at its July 29, 2026 meeting.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote on the decision.
The federal funds rate has been held steady at 3.5% to 3.75% since the beginning of 2026 despite solid economic expansion.
federalreserve.govMaintaining rates keeps borrowing costs elevated to combat inflation, while a hike would further increase costs for consumers and businesses, whereas a cut would lower them.
federalreserve.govReutersNote: The resolution rule specifies that a "Hike of 0bps" (i.e., no change) resolves the market to "Yes" for "Fed maintains rate," making the steady stance the primary path for this outcome.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to signal the July rate decision but stated that inflation remains "too high".
CNBCMinutes from the June meeting revealed an even divide among policymakers, with some content to hold rates steady while others view rate hikes as appropriate if inflation persists.
ReutersThe June dot plot showed a transformation in policymakers' outlook, with rate hikes now seen as far more likely than cuts for the rest of 2026.
ReutersAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% at both the March and June 2026 meetings.
federalreserve.govfederalreserve.govThe July 2026 Monetary Policy Report states the FOMC has maintained this rate range since the beginning of the year in support of its dual mandate.
federalreserve.govEconomists note the FOMC has adopted a "wait and see" approach earlier this year, making substantive policy changes unlikely at the upcoming meeting.
kiplinger.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Fed officials are increasingly concerned about inflation risks and have expressed openness to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated much longer.
ReutersThe median forecast now suggests an increase in the federal funds rate by the end of 2026, reflecting a shift away from earlier projections that favored cuts.
CNBCRecent economic projections indicate Fed officials expect inflation to reach 2.7% by year-end, surpassing the 2% target, which could pressure the committee to raise rates.
Yahoo NewsAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.