Fed rate cut before 2027?
Before 2027
$790.9K Vol.Closes Jan 1, 2027
Cuts$790.9K Vol.19%
Before 2027
The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to cut its target federal funds rate at any of its remaining 2026 meetings between now and December 31, 2026.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), now led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, makes the decision after weighing inflation data and economic growth.
The rate has been held steady at 3.50%–3.75% since March 2026, despite earlier cuts in late 2025, as officials adopt a wait-and-see approach amid geopolitical and inflation uncertainty.
equalsmoney.comfidelity.comA rate cut would reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, potentially stimulating spending and investment, while holding rates maintains pressure on inflation but supports currency stability.
mexc.comYahoo NewsNote: The market resolves to "Cuts" only if a cut occurs between February 26 and December 31, 2026; the March and June holds do not affect the outcome, but the July, September, October, and December meetings remain critical decision points.
At the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed also kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, following a series of rate cuts in late 2025.
equalsmoney.comfox13news.comThe Fed’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections indicated a median forecast of one rate cut for 2026, with a median year-end rate target of 3.4%.
mexc.comYahoo NewsThe Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% during its June 16–17 meeting, marking the latest pause after cuts in late 2025.
fox13news.comfidelity.comFOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29, 2026, with a decision expected on July 29.
mexc.comglobal.morningstar.comFOMC meeting scheduled for September 15–16, 2026, with a decision expected on September 16.
mexc.comglobal.morningstar.comFOMC meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026, with a decision expected on October 28.
mexc.comglobal.morningstar.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The Fed’s own March 2026 projections explicitly point to a median year-end rate of 3.4%, implying at least one quarter-point cut is still expected in 2026.
mexc.comMost economists forecast two rate cuts this year, with the June meeting or later identified as the most likely timing for the first cut.
fox13news.comChairman Kevin Warsh, while presiding over the June hold, has not ruled out cuts if inflation stabilizes, and derivatives markets still reflect a non-zero probability of at least one cut by year-end.
fidelity.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Futures markets priced in roughly a 97% chance of another rate hold as of June 13, 2026, indicating strong market confidence the Fed will not cut before the end of the year.
mexc.comRising inflation has led investors to increase bets on a potential rate hike before year-end, with derivatives markets suggesting a nearly 60% chance of at least one hike by December.
fidelity.comFed Chair Powell previously indicated that uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern conflicts could delay rate cuts, and the Fed has adopted a wait-and-see approach due to these geopolitical risks.
mexc.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.