In 2026
And 11 more markets on this event.
View on KalshiThe Federal Reserve is deciding whether to cut, hold, or raise the federal funds rate during the remainder of 2026 amid elevated inflation and supply shocks.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and the 19-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) control U.S. monetary policy decisions.
The rate has been held at 3.50%–3.75% since December 2025 after a December 2025 cut, while inflation remains above the 2% target for the fifth year.
CNBCReutersishares.comZero rate cuts in 2026 would keep borrowing costs high for consumers and businesses, potentially slowing economic growth but helping to curb persistent inflation.
CNBCishares.comNote: The Fed's forward guidance was explicitly stripped of near-term action predictions in June 2026 under Chairman Warsh, increasing uncertainty around the final 2026 count despite the majority projecting a hike.
The Fed held rates steady in March 2026 after cutting them in December 2025, with the dot plot initially suggesting one cut in 2026 before inflation and oil prices reduced that expectation to a maximum of one.
CNBCfederalreserve.govThe Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% as new Chairman Kevin Warsh launched a policy review.
federalreserve.govReutersNine of 19 FOMC policymakers now project a rate hike by the end of 2026, contrasting with earlier expectations of cuts.
ReutersFederal Reserve FOMC meeting to announce interest rate decision and economic projections.
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting to announce interest rate decision.
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting to announce interest rate decision.
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting to announce interest rate decision and release updated dot plot projections for 2027.
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Nine of 19 FOMC members project a rate hike by end-2026, and the median official forecast implies the rate will rise to 3.8% by year-end, making cuts highly unlikely.
ReutersCNBCRising inflation above the 2% target for five years and strong labor market data have shifted Fed policy from dovish to hawkish, with markets now pricing multiple hikes instead of cuts.
CNBCishares.comJ.P. Morgan Global Research explicitly forecasts "no cuts this year," with the next expected move being a 25-basis-point hike in September 2027.
jpmorgan.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Prior to the Iran conflict and oil price surge, markets anticipated two rate cuts in 2026, and the March 2026 dot plot still suggested one cut before inflation data diminished that outlook to a maximum of one.
CNBCThe FOMC median of modal paths for the federal funds rate implied "one rate cut in the second quarter of next year" (2027), suggesting policymakers still see a need for easing soon if conditions worsen.
federalreserve.govSeven of 19 participants in the March 2026 FOMC indicated they expect rates to remain unchanged this year, but the remaining 12 did not uniformly rule out cuts if inflation declines unexpectedly.
CNBCAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.