Fed Decision in September?
$3.6M Vol.Closes Sep 16, 2026
No change$763.4K Vol.59%
25 bps increase$872K Vol.37%
25 bps decrease$1M Vol.3%
50+ bps decrease$545.4K Vol.2%
50+ bps increase$452.3K Vol.1%
The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to change the upper bound of its target federal funds rate (currently 3.75%) at its September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by Chair Jerome Powell, makes the decision after assessing economic data and inflation outlooks.
The rate has remained stable at 3.50%–3.75% since the March 2026 decision, with the next meeting occurring less than two months after the upcoming July 28–29 session.
A decision to hold rates steady ("No change") would signal the Fed sees the current level as appropriate for balancing inflation control and economic growth, while a cut could reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Note: The outcome of the July 28–29 meeting will directly determine the "prior level" against which the September change is measured, so a July cut would make a September "No change" outcome mean rates are simply held at the new lower level.
The Fed opted to keep its benchmark rate unchanged in January, maintaining the 3.5%–3.75% range established in March 2025.
Yahoo NewsThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target rate unchanged at its current range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
investozora.comEconomists and experts continue to speculate that further federal funds rate reductions may occur in 2026, though the magnitude and timing remain uncertain.
Yahoo NewsThe FOMC convenes for its July 28–29 meeting, with the rate decision announced on July 29, which will set the baseline rate for the September meeting.
fedratecalc.comfedratecalc.comThe FOMC begins its September 15–16 meeting, where the final rate decision for this market will be announced on September 16 at 2:00 PM ET.
fedratecalc.commexc.coAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The Fed has maintained the 3.50%–3.75% range since March 2026, indicating a period of monetary stability that may persist if inflation and employment data remain on target.
investozora.comWhile rate cuts are speculated for 2026, many economists foresee them occurring later in the year, leaving the September meeting as a potential holding point before deeper cuts in October or December.
Yahoo NewsThe CME FedWatch tool currently shows a 92%+ probability of no change at the upcoming July meeting, suggesting a conservative trajectory that may continue into September if economic conditions do not shift sharply.
thebrrr.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Multiple experts and economists foresee a rate cut later in 2026, increasing the likelihood that the September meeting could be the first opportunity for a 25 bps decrease if inflation data softens.
Yahoo NewsThe dot plot from recent meetings indicates a transition toward a lower median rate target (around 3.0%–3.5%), suggesting the Committee may be prepared to move downward from the current 3.75% upper bound.
ForbesThe Fed's stated goal of returning inflation to 2% creates pressure to lower rates if economic data shows slowing demand or persistent disinflation, making "No change" less certain if the July meeting sets a dovish tone.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.