Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$753.8K Vol.Closes Jul 29, 2026

Pause–Pause–Pause$348.6K Vol.92%

Other$280K Vol.6%

Pause–Pause–Cut$73K Vol.<1%

At a glance

What

The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at its upcoming July 28–29 meeting, the third decision in a sequence covering April, June, and July 2026.

Who

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), now led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, is making the rate decision after previously holding rates steady in April and June 2026.

Context

The committee has shifted from a "cutting bias" to a "wait-and-see" mode, with officials eliminating forecasts for 2026 cuts and indicating a hike could be forthcoming due to inflation spikes linked to the Iran war.

raison.app CNBC mufgresearch.com

Stakes

A decision to "Pause–Pause–Pause" confirms the Fed will keep borrowing costs high to combat inflation, while a "Cut" in July would signal an immediate pivot to easing monetary policy to support economic growth.

Note: The market resolves based on the *upper bound* of the target rate; the current upper bound is 3.75%, so a "Cut" would require this bound to fall below 3.75%.

Apr 29

The FOMC previously held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in April, but the vote was divided 8-4, revealing significant dissent regarding the pace of normalization amid ongoing inflation and uncertainty.

CNBC

Jun 17

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously maintained the target federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Fed Chair, removing language that previously suggested a leaning toward future rate cuts.

raison.app CNBC

Jun 17

Fed officials revised their "dot plot" forecast to eliminate the expectation of a rate reduction in 2026, instead projecting a median rate of 3.8% by year-end which implies a potential hike.

raison.app CNBC

Now

Jul 28

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to announce its decision on the target federal funds rate for the July period.

zforex.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The Fed unanimously held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in June and removed cutting bias from its policy statement, signaling a strong commitment to maintaining current levels amid inflation concerns.
raison.app CNBC
Federal officials' median forecast for the federal funds rate by end-2026 was raised to 3.8%, implying the committee anticipates at least one rate increase rather than a cut this year.
raison.app CNBC
Analysts note the Fed is in a "wait-and-see mode" gauging the impact of the Iran war on inflation, making imminent cuts challenging unless war-related inflation effects fade quickly.
raison.app mufgresearch.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Derivatives markets still suggest investors see a nearly 60% chance of at least one rate hike by year-end, but the presence of significant dissent in the April vote (8-4) and earlier forecasts for cuts indicates the committee is not fully unified on holding.
CNBC fidelity.com
Prior to the June meeting, market expectations had fully accounted for no changes, and some analysts like Reynolds from Mede still forecast one or two cuts in 2026 despite the Fed's shift.
CNBC Forbes

At a glance

What

Who

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), now led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, is making the rate decision after previously holding rates steady in April and June 2026.

Context

raison.app CNBC mufgresearch.com

Stakes

Note: The market resolves based on the *upper bound* of the target rate; the current upper bound is 3.75%, so a "Cut" would require this bound to fall below 3.75%.

Apr 29

CNBC

Jun 17

raison.app CNBC

Jun 17

Fed officials revised their "dot plot" forecast to eliminate the expectation of a rate reduction in 2026, instead projecting a median rate of 3.8% by year-end which implies a potential hike.

raison.app CNBC

Now

Jul 28

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to announce its decision on the target federal funds rate for the July period.

zforex.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The Fed unanimously held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in June and removed cutting bias from its policy statement, signaling a strong commitment to maintaining current levels amid inflation concerns.
raison.app CNBC
Federal officials' median forecast for the federal funds rate by end-2026 was raised to 3.8%, implying the committee anticipates at least one rate increase rather than a cut this year.
raison.app CNBC
Analysts note the Fed is in a "wait-and-see mode" gauging the impact of the Iran war on inflation, making imminent cuts challenging unless war-related inflation effects fade quickly.
raison.app mufgresearch.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Derivatives markets still suggest investors see a nearly 60% chance of at least one rate hike by year-end, but the presence of significant dissent in the April vote (8-4) and earlier forecasts for cuts indicates the committee is not fully unified on holding.
CNBC fidelity.com
Prior to the June meeting, market expectations had fully accounted for no changes, and some analysts like Reynolds from Mede still forecast one or two cuts in 2026 despite the Fed's shift.
CNBC Forbes