Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

$323.1K Vol.Closes Sep 16, 2026

Pause–Pause–Pause$190.7K Vol.63%

Other$87.8K Vol.36%

Pause–Pause–Cut$15K Vol.4%

Pause–Cut–Cut$10.5K Vol.<1%

Pause–Cut–Pause$11.5K Vol.<1%

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to change the target federal funds rate at the July 28–29 and September 15–16 FOMC meetings, following a pause at the June 16–17 meeting.

Who

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, is determining the rate trajectory amid persistent inflation concerns.

Context

Inflation is accelerating due to high energy prices and geopolitical tensions from the Iran war, prompting the Fed to shift from an easing bias to a hawkish stance that now considers rate hikes possible.

Stakes

A "Pause–Pause–Pause" outcome would keep borrowing costs steady at 3.5%–3.75%, supporting financial stability but risking further inflation if the economy remains overheated.

Note: The "Pause–Pause–Pause" outcome requires the Fed to hold rates steady at both the July and September meetings, which is increasingly challenged by the committee's own median projection of a rate hike by year-end.

Jun 17

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Fed chair.

federalreserve.gov CNBC

Jun 17

Fed officials removed forecast language for a rate cut in 2026 and shifted their median dot plot projection to imply at least one rate hike this year, with the median end-of-2026 rate expectation rising to 3.8%.

CNBC am.jpmorgan.com

Jun 17

The committee dropped its previous "easing bias" and indicated that concerns over inflation accelerating alongside high energy prices drove the decision to hold rates steady for a fourth consecutive meeting.

kiplinger.com economics.td.com

Now

Jul 28

FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29 to decide on the federal funds rate for the second time in this market's sequence.

Sep 15

FOMC meeting scheduled for September 15–16 to decide on the federal funds rate for the third and final time in this market's sequence.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The June 2026 FOMC vote was unanimous to hold rates steady, demonstrating strong internal consensus among the 12 committee members to maintain the "wait and see" approach.
kiplinger.com New York Times
Eight of the 19 potential FOMC participants in the June dot plot forecast no change in rates for the rest of 2026, indicating a significant bloc within the committee prefers stability over further tightening or cutting.
CNBC
The Fed has explicitly adopted a "wait and see" approach earlier in the year, and senior members like Zureick stated the meeting itself is unlikely to produce substantive policy changes, suggesting continuity is the default path.
kiplinger.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

The median FOMC member now expects the federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.75%–3.8%, which is higher than the current 3.5%–3.75% range, implying a rate hike is the consensus expectation rather than a pause.
CNBC am.jpmorgan.com
Nine participants in the June dot plot forecast at least one rate increase in 2026, while only one forecast a cut and eight forecast no change, showing a majority leaning toward tightening to combat accelerating inflation.
CNBC

At a glance

What

The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to change the target federal funds rate at the July 28–29 and September 15–16 FOMC meetings, following a pause at the June 16–17 meeting.

Who

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, is determining the rate trajectory amid persistent inflation concerns.

Context

Stakes

A "Pause–Pause–Pause" outcome would keep borrowing costs steady at 3.5%–3.75%, supporting financial stability but risking further inflation if the economy remains overheated.

Jun 17

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Fed chair.

federalreserve.gov CNBC

Jun 17

CNBC am.jpmorgan.com

Jun 17

kiplinger.com economics.td.com

Now

Jul 28

FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29 to decide on the federal funds rate for the second time in this market's sequence.

Sep 15

FOMC meeting scheduled for September 15–16 to decide on the federal funds rate for the third and final time in this market's sequence.

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The June 2026 FOMC vote was unanimous to hold rates steady, demonstrating strong internal consensus among the 12 committee members to maintain the "wait and see" approach.
kiplinger.com New York Times
Eight of the 19 potential FOMC participants in the June dot plot forecast no change in rates for the rest of 2026, indicating a significant bloc within the committee prefers stability over further tightening or cutting.
CNBC
The Fed has explicitly adopted a "wait and see" approach earlier in the year, and senior members like Zureick stated the meeting itself is unlikely to produce substantive policy changes, suggesting continuity is the default path.
kiplinger.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

The median FOMC member now expects the federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.75%–3.8%, which is higher than the current 3.5%–3.75% range, implying a rate hike is the consensus expectation rather than a pause.
CNBC am.jpmorgan.com
Nine participants in the June dot plot forecast at least one rate increase in 2026, while only one forecast a cut and eight forecast no change, showing a majority leaning toward tightening to combat accelerating inflation.
CNBC