Fed rate cut by...?
$2.9M Vol.Closes Jun 17, 2026
December Meeting$231.2K Vol.17%
October Meeting$80.6K Vol.10%
September Meeting$191.9K Vol.4%
July Meeting$489.2K Vol.<1%
The Federal Reserve executed a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at its December 2025 FOMC meeting, lowering the target federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by Chair Jerome Powell, approved the cut despite significant dissent from three members who favored no change.
This action was the third consecutive rate reduction in 2025, driven by concerns over labor market weakness and a shift in the balance of risks despite delayed economic data from a government shutdown.
The cut brings the policy rate closer to economists' estimates of the neutral range, potentially lowering borrowing costs for consumers and businesses while signaling the Fed is nearing the end of its cutting cycle.
Note: The market description specifies the relevant window is between December 16, 2025, and the January 2026 FOMC meeting; since the cut occurred on December 10, 2025, it technically falls outside the stated start date of the qualifying window, which may impact the market's resolution depending on whether the "between" phrasing is interpreted strictly or if the date in the description contains an error relative to the actual event.
The rate reduction passed with a 9-3 vote, representing the highest number of dissenting opinions at an FOMC meeting since 2019.
CNBCam.jpmorgan.comThe Fed disclosed minutes from the December meeting confirming the decision to reduce rates and indicating officials see the potential for another reduction in 2026.
CNBCAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The Fed explicitly signaled in December 2025 minutes that officials anticipate the potential for another rate reduction in 2026, followed by another in 2027, suggesting the cutting cycle is not yet complete.
CNBCFed Chair Jerome Powell indicated at the December press conference that the rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, positioning the Fed to wait and see while remaining open to future cuts if economic conditions evolve.
youtube.comThe 9-3 vote distribution in December, with three members dissenting in favor of no change, highlights internal pressure from more dovish members who may push for further cuts in early 2026.
CNBCam.jpmorgan.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Federal Reserve officials' median quarterly projections from December 2025 indicated a single rate cut for the upcoming year (2026), suggesting a more cautious approach than multiple cuts.
CNNThe December decision to cut rates was described as indicating a "higher bar for future rate cuts," signaling the Fed believes it is closer to the end of its cutting cycle in the near-term.
chase.comWith the policy rate now at 3.50%–3.75%, the Fed has already reduced rates by 175 basis points since September 2024, potentially exhausting the immediate need for further aggressive easing.
youtube.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.