Fed rate hike in 2026?
$4.2M Vol.Closes Dec 9, 2026
Fed rate hike in 2026?$4.2M Vol.54%
The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to increase the upper bound of its target federal funds rate at any meeting between January 1, 2026, and the December 8–9, 2026, meeting.
The decision is made by the 19-member Federal Open Market Committee, now led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, who took office in May 2026.
After holding rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% since December 2025, the Fed eliminated its prior forecast for a 2026 rate cut and signaled that a hike is possible due to persistently elevated inflation.
federalreserve.govCNBCA rate hike would raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, potentially slowing economic activity but helping bring inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% target.
CNBCNote: The market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed issues its official rate decision following the December 8–9, 2026, meeting, as a hike could occur at that final meeting.
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% during Chairman Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting, though officials revised projections to indicate at least one rate hike could occur by the end of 2026.
federalreserve.govCNBCBank of America revised its forecast to expect three quarter-point rate hikes in 2026 (September, October, December), citing "unambiguously worse" inflation and Warsh’s firm stance.
CNBCthestreet.comFederal Reserve July 2026 FOMC meeting decision on interest rates.
Federal Reserve September 2026 FOMC meeting decision on interest rates.
Federal Reserve October 2026 FOMC meeting decision on interest rates.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Persistently elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target has prompted nine FOMC members to project at least one 2026 rate hike, with six expecting two or more increases.
CNBCReutersBank of America forecasts three 25-basis-point hikes in September, October, and December 2026, citing "unambiguously worse" inflation data and Chairman Warsh’s firm monetary stance.
CNBCthestreet.comCME Group’s FedWatch tool shows traders pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a December hike and a 60.7% probability of a hike by October 2026, reflecting market expectations of inflation-driven tightening.
CNBCyoutube.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
J.P. Morgan Global Research continues to forecast the Fed remaining on hold for the rest of 2026, with the first 25-basis-point hike expected only in September 2027.
jpmorgan.comA Reuters poll of economists (June 23–25) shows over three-quarters expect the federal funds rate to remain steady through the end of 2026, defying market pricing for two hikes.
ReutersThe Fed’s official "dot plot" indicates a median year-end 2026 rate projection of 3.8%, which is only 0.16 percentage points above the current 3.5%–3.75% range, suggesting limited upward pressure.
CNBCAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.