How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$43.3M Vol.Closes Dec 31, 2026

0 (0 bps)$6.3M Vol.85%

1 (25 bps)$2.1M Vol.12%

2 (50 bps)$2.2M Vol.2%

3 (75 bps)$2.2M Vol.1%

12+ (300+ bps)$3.5M Vol.1%

4 (100 bps)$2.2M Vol.<1%

5 (125 bps)$2.4M Vol.<1%

6 (150 bps)$3.6M Vol.<1%

7 (175 bps)$2.8M Vol.<1%

8 (200 bps)$2.8M Vol.<1%

And 3 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to implement any interest rate cuts in 2026 after holding rates steady in January and June.

Who

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are setting monetary policy for the US economy.

Context

After cutting rates three times in 2025 to reach 3.5%-3.75%, the Fed has shifted to a hawkish tone amid inflation above the 2% target for five years.

CNBC ishares.com

Stakes

Achieving zero cuts in 2026 would signal the end of the easing cycle and potentially keep borrowing costs higher for consumers and businesses, impacting economic growth.

Note: The Fed's June 2026 projection explicitly shifted from expecting one cut in 2026 to expecting **zero cuts**, a significant reversal from earlier guidance.

Jan 29

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026, marking the start of a pause in the cutting cycle after three reductions in 2025.

federalreserve.gov

Jun 17

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% during Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as chairman, with the median FOMC projection now indicating at least one rate hike in 2026 rather than cuts.

CNBC

Jun 17

Federal Reserve officials revised their 2026 outlook to project no rate cuts, shifting from their March expectation of one cut due to rising inflationary pressures and stronger economic growth forecasts.

barrons.com Yahoo News

Now

Jul 30

Federal Reserve July FOMC meeting to announce rate decision and update economic projections.

CNBC

Sep 17

Federal Reserve September FOMC meeting, where bond markets previously priced in a potential cut.

morningstar.com

Nov 6

Federal Reserve November FOMC meeting, the final scheduled meeting before the December close date.

morningstar.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bull case

The FOMC's June 2026 dot plot shows the median projection for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026 is 3.8%, implying a rate hike rather than a cut.
CNBC
Seventy-five percent of Fed committee members (14 of 19) now predict either no change or only a single minor cut, indicating a consolidated "hold" stance.
investopedia.com
The Fed's forward guidance has shifted from dovish to hawkish due to supply shocks and inflation persisting above the 2% target, making cuts unlikely.
ishares.com

AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.

Bear case

Bond futures markets continue to price in approximately 50 basis points of easing (two 25-point cuts) in 2026, with a 45% probability of a cut by April and another in September.
morningstar.com
Bankrate's 2026 Interest Rate Forecast projects three additional cuts totaling 0.75 percentage points in 2026, contradicting the Fed's no-cut outlook.
bankrate.com
Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed will start easing by late 2026 with two 25-basis-point cuts as economic growth slows and inflation decreases.
Yahoo News

Fed rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$43.3M Vol.Closes Dec 31, 2026

0 (0 bps)$6.3M Vol.85%

1 (25 bps)$2.1M Vol.12%

2 (50 bps)$2.2M Vol.2%

3 (75 bps)$2.2M Vol.1%

12+ (300+ bps)$3.5M Vol.1%

4 (100 bps)$2.2M Vol.<1%

5 (125 bps)$2.4M Vol.<1%

6 (150 bps)$3.6M Vol.<1%

7 (175 bps)$2.8M Vol.<1%

8 (200 bps)$2.8M Vol.<1%

And 3 more markets on this event.

View on Polymarket

At a glance

What

The Federal Reserve is deciding whether to implement any interest rate cuts in 2026 after holding rates steady in January and June.

Who

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are setting monetary policy for the US economy.

Context

After cutting rates three times in 2025 to reach 3.5%-3.75%, the Fed has shifted to a hawkish tone amid inflation above the 2% target for five years.

CNBC ishares.com

Stakes

Achieving zero cuts in 2026 would signal the end of the easing cycle and potentially keep borrowing costs higher for consumers and businesses, impacting economic growth.

Note: The Fed's June 2026 projection explicitly shifted from expecting one cut in 2026 to expecting **zero cuts**, a significant reversal from earlier guidance.

Jan 29

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026, marking the start of a pause in the cutting cycle after three reductions in 2025.

federalreserve.gov

Jun 17

CNBC

Jun 17

barrons.com Yahoo News

Now

Jul 30

Federal Reserve July FOMC meeting to announce rate decision and update economic projections.

CNBC

Sep 17

Federal Reserve September FOMC meeting, where bond markets previously priced in a potential cut.

morningstar.com