And 10 more markets on this event.
View on PolymarketThe Federal Reserve is maintaining its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% while assessing inflation spikes linked to the Iran war and deciding whether to raise rates before 2027.
federalreserve.govCNBCNew Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are steering monetary policy after a leadership change from Jerome Powell.
CNBCAfter cutting rates three times in late 2025, the Fed has held steady for three consecutive meetings and formally removed its forecast for a 2026 rate cut, with median projections now pointing to a year-end rate of 3.8%.
CNBCCNBCA rate hike could increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses to combat inflation, while holding steady supports economic growth amid geopolitical uncertainty.
CNBCfidelity.comNote: The "↑ 4.25%" outcome requires the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds range to reach 4.25%; with the current range at 3.5%–3.75%, a hike of at least 50 basis points (two 25-bp steps) is needed to hit this level.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in the April meeting, marking the third consecutive hold after three cuts in late 2025, while market participants began factoring in no changes for the remainder of 2026.
CNBCThe Federal Open Market Committee unanimously maintained the target federal funds rate range at 3.5% to 3.75% during Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as chair, eliminating previous forecasts for a 2026 cut and signaling a potential hike.
federalreserve.govCNBCFed officials' median projection for the federal funds rate by the end of 2026 shifted to 3.8%, implying at least one rate increase this year, with nine participants expecting a hike compared to zero in the March forecast.
CNBCFOMC meeting to review economic data and potentially adjust the federal funds rate target range.
CNBCFOMC meeting where market futures now fully price in a rate hike, with traders expecting a potential increase as early as October.
CNBCschwab.comFOMC meeting preceding the year-end resolution window, where a second hike in December could be considered if inflation remains elevated.
schwab.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
Nine of 19 FOMC participants projected at least one rate hike in 2026, shifting the median end-of-year rate projection up to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, indicating strong internal support for raising rates above the current 3.75% upper bound.
CNBCMarket futures following the June meeting fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike in October, with Bloomberg reporting potential for another hike in December, suggesting markets anticipate the rate will exceed 4.0% before 2027.
schwab.comRising inflation and the hawkish tone of Chair Warsh's policy statement have increased the likelihood of a rate hike by year-end, with derivatives markets suggesting a nearly 60% chance of at least one increase.
fidelity.comschwab.comAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
J.P. Morgan Global Research continues to forecast the Fed remaining on hold for the rest of 2026, predicting the first hike of 25 basis points will occur in September 2027 rather than before 2027.
jpmorgan.comDespite the hawkish shift, eight FOMC members still project rates to remain unchanged in 2026, and one member continues to forecast a cut, indicating significant internal dissent against immediate hikes.
CNBCschwab.comInvestors' bets on a year-end hike have declined somewhat following news of a potential deal with Iran, which could stabilize inflation and reduce the urgency for rate increases.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.