And 5 more markets on this event.
View on PolymarketThe Federal Reserve is determining the target federal funds rate range at its December 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the current range set at 3.5% to 3.75%.
costar.comCNBCThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by new Chairman Kevin Warsh, makes the decision after assessing inflation data and labor market conditions.
CNBCAfter cutting rates three times in late 2025, the Fed paused in early 2026 and has since shifted its 2026 end-year rate forecast to 3.8%, implying a potential increase from current levels.
CNBCA rate higher than 3.75% would increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, while a rate at or below 3.75% would maintain easier financial conditions to support economic growth.
costar.comNote: The market resolves to the upper bound of the target range; if the Fed cuts rates, the upper bound could fall to 3.5% or lower, while a hike could push it to 4.0% or 4.25%.
The Fed began 2026 by holding rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% following three consecutive reductions in late 2025, balancing stubborn inflation against a cooling job market.
costar.comThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously held the benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% during Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Fed chair, marking the first pause since late 2025 cuts.
CNBCFed officials updated their median projection for the federal funds rate by the end of 2026 to 3.8%, an increase from the previous 3.4% forecast, suggesting expectations for at least one rate hike this year.
CNBCAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The FOMC's median projection for the end-of-2026 rate is 3.8%, which is closest to the 4.0% outcome but implies upward pressure that could land near the 3.75% upper bound if the hike is smaller than the median grid suggests.
CNBCNew Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh hinted at potential rate increases during his June 2026 meeting, signaling a shift from the previous easing cycle to a more hawkish stance if inflation remains above the 2% target.
CNBCInflation forecasts for year-end 2026 were raised to 2.7% (headline) in the June Summary of Economic Projections, creating a rationale for the Fed to hold or raise rates rather than cut further.
Yahoo NewsAI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.
The current target range upper bound is exactly 3.75%, and the Fed has maintained this level since late 2025, suggesting stability unless inflation data forces a decisive move.
costar.comCNBCThree FOMC members foresee elevated rates in 2026, but the majority still project only minimal movement or a single cut, indicating the committee may not aggressively hike to 4.0% or higher.
barrons.comEconomic growth is expected to accelerate slightly, but labor market weakening is not predicted to be significant (unemployment forecast at 4.1%), reducing the immediate urgency for a rate hike beyond the current 3.75% cap.
AI-generated briefing. AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice.